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Industry and Economic Forces
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One last comment/question of economic interest: Pay increases have been dipping further below the levels in costs of living for some time, and national indices warn that production costs are increasingly dif cult to pass on to consumers Is there a subtle message here about smallerbusiness values forecast on the far side However, don t forgo consideration of values added for businesses that may have settled into niches predicting survival Survival of the ttest may be quite necessary to satisfy customer demand long term, and bigs, though they have deep pockets, cannot be all things to all people The theory of economics does not furnish a body of settled conclusions immediately applicable to policy It is a method rather than a doctrine, an apparatus of the mind, a technique of thinking, which helps its possessor to draw correct conclusions
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Montgomery Ward, in the late World War II and early postwar environment, lived under the policy guidance of a top management which erroneously assessed the basic course of the aggregate economy As a consequence the company was dominated by the view that cash balances must be conserved, and not used actively for normal business purposes The compulsion to maximum liquidity almost cost the company its existence and did destroy its relative competitive position
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The Four Steeds in Business Valuation
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Up to now we ve been mostly discussing scienti c ritual leading up to establishing values in closely held businesses But there are legions of opposition to contend with: namely, human intuition and a close cousin Idon t-believe This chapter is not intended as either a research treatise or an encyclopedia Instead, the objective is a concise statement of the main problems growing out of the instinctively human relationship as it plays out in business valuation The stress will be upon controversy, argument, and joinder of issues at all levels of analysis To make discussion a bit more interesting, let s call these the Four Steeds who attempt to gallop through business valuation Argument is the steed of war It is human nature to argue, but it is also human nature to agree and to forgive Regardless of scienti c formulas being used, and regardless of the facts presented, arrayed, and analyzed, there will be contest between observers Given this knowledge, the value processor must analyze situations in advance so that one is never blindsided The essential conditions of business valuation are past, present, and predictable future cash ows, positions in the marketplace, established values in hard assets, nancing economies, supply and demand, and logic of purpose for exercises The situations for analysis are thus outlined However, the variableness in human perception is where the steed rides aloft to commit acts of argument Buyers and sellers both expect to gain through establishment of prices (values) The motivations of argument (war) are nearly always to gain For the bene t of both buyers and sellers who are conducting their own valuation tasks or looking over the shoulders of others doing the work, one must separate oppositions into two categories: in exible participants and unwilling participants In exible attitude, of course, is the
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The Four Steeds in Business Valuation
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war itself and unlikely to be won without incredible costs Unwilling attitudes, however, are but battles within the war zone and might be won with convincing strategies In exible people are those guys and gals who live in negative worlds day to day They blame everything that happens to them on other people and consistently live from a platform where they dictate all the rules that other people are expected to live by They disrespect fair play and will not come up to level ground in negotiations because they simply don t want to do so To play their game you must step down to their level, and let s be frank, you cannot win in the because-I-want-it eld of play To them, business value is never as business valuation does Unwilling people, however, are individuals who have a cause they d like to achieve They live in a positive world for the most part and comprise the vast majority of populations They can be swayed by compelling arguments based in fact With them, negotiations over business value rarely turn into arguments; negotiations are more like disagreements where evidence will gradually sink in to change their perception of that value Thus, to eliminate the steed of war in business valuation, one must eliminate discussions based in in exible perception In spite of factual evidence, in exible participants will choose only their rigid contentions of value; therefore, the equation will remain lopsided in opinions of value Unwilling riders will leave their steeds of war and shuck their armor when safely convinced that there is no more war Controversy is the steed of conquest Controversy, if not addressed each time its ugly head appears during various stages of negotiation over price, will trample business valuation proceedings We humans digest information slowly, particularly if that information is contrary to our own prevailing beliefs When asked to accept overwhelming contradiction in one fell swoop, we can easily turn aggressor and attempt to become conqueror Thus the steed of conquest must be unsaddled slowly and leaked information bit by bit Buyer s and seller s need is nearly always different, and, consequently, controversy can be expected The motivations of controversy tend to be exhibited in personal need Joinder is the steed of pestilence Ganging together in cohorts to commit acts of conviction on opponents can assail the objectives of cooperation On one hand, it connotes unsureness in your position, and, on the other, it suggests undue pressure The better way to get cooperative agreement is to go one-on-one, and then seek third-party consultation to both, in the form of mediation if need be Bear in mind that it is quite normal for presumed values in closely held enterprise to elicit initial disagreement in one form or the other, because even with the best technical
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