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Buffett decided not to swing that is, not to make additional investments in the stock market in 1997 However, he also makes it clear that just standing there, day after day, with a bat on my shoulder is not my idea of fun 27 Patience, although not easy, is necessary for success in investing When stock price appears high relative to fundamentals, stay away from investing
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1999: Taking Responsibility
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Event Berkshire has the worst absolute performance of Buffett s tenure to date and, compared with the S&P 500 index, the worst relative performance as well Buffett gives himself a D in capital allocation Lesson It is an everyday matter to see corporate managers blaming others when their company s performance is below par If not other individuals, the guilty party is frequently the climate or the interest rates Instead, with respect to the 1999 results, Buffett writes:
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Even Inspector Clouseau could nd last year s guilty party: your Chairman My performance reminds me of the quarterback whose report card showed four Fs and a D but who nonetheless had an understanding coach Son, he drawled, I think you re spending too much time on that one subject My one subject is capital allocation, and my grade for 1999 most assuredly is a D28
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Do not blame others When you take responsibility for your failed investments, as Buffett often does, it is easier to learn from your mistakes and avoid repeating them in the future
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2000: Selling in Euphoria
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Event Buffett mentions that the long-term prospect for equities in general is far from exciting 29 Lesson With hindsight, one can conclude that Buffett should have sold some of the holdings before the stock market started to decline
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1965 2009: Lessons from Signi cant Events in Berkshire History 21
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in 2000 The Coca-Cola shares traded at prices as high as $85 per share in 1998 Ten years later, in 2009, Coca-Cola stock price is about $45 per share As Buffett has recognized, the stock market does become euphoric periodically, and the main lesson is that an investor should sell in those circumstances
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2001: Not Losing Focus When Disaster Strikes
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Event On September 11, 2001, terrorists attack the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, DC Lesson Buffett estimated that insurance losses surrounding the events of September 11 were $22 billion, one of the largest in Berkshire history Even Berkshire did not anticipate a terrorist attack and had not protected itself from such a megadisaster On September 26, he wrote to his managers: What should you be doing in running your business Just what you always do almost all operating decisions that made sense a month ago make sense today 30 Essentially, Buffett suggests that such disasters could actually present opportunities for managers to expand their businesses
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2002: Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction
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Event Using Enron as an example, Buffett discusses possibilities of huge losses from derivative contracts and his decision to close down the derivative business that came with the acquisition of General Re in 1998 Lesson Buffett writes, We try to be alert to any sort of megacatastrophe risk, and that our posture may make us unduly apprehensive about the burgeoning quantities of long-term derivatives contracts He was remarkably prescient in stating, In our view, derivatives are nancial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal 31 Investors in large companies like Enron, WorldCom, AIG, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae lost all or most of their investments because these companies indulged heavily
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introduction and background
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in derivatives that they could have done without The important lesson for an average investor is that one should avoid investing in companies with dif cult-to-understand business models or nancial statements
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2008-2009: Market Crashes
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Event During a span of six months from September 2008 to March 2009, Berkshire stock class A experiences prices as high as $150,000 per share and as low as $75,000, representing a decline of 50 percent The market as a whole experiences a similar downturn Lesson As Buffett points out: Amid this bad news, however, never forget that our country has faced far worse travails in the past Without fail, however, we ve overcome them 32 This is not the rst time that Berkshire s stock price has gone down by 50 percent It has happened three other times since Buffett took control over the company in 1965 In recent years, from 1998 to 2000, Berkshire s stock price dropped by about 45 percent, from $79,000 to $44,000 Berkshire was a good buy after such a decline While I recommend that you do your homework, late 2009, in my opinion, is still a good time to buy Berkshire stock and stocks in other conservatively nanced, prominent companies
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