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most powerful and easy-to-recognize reversal patterns, the Head and Shoulders (and its twin, the Inverse Head and Shoulders).
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THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN
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The Head and Shoulders pattern (henceforth referred to as H&S) has a funny name but a powerful purpose: to indicate the possible reversal of the security you are charting. As the name suggests, the H&S pattern looks like a head between two shoulders. It consists of these elements: Left Shoulder: An ascent in price (ideally following a long, major ascent in the stock s value), a leveling, and then a weakening back to a certain support level known as the neckline. Head: A further ascent in price, surpassing the high set by the left shoulder, once again leveling off and descending back to the neckline. Right Shoulder: A nal ascent in price, ideally not going as high as the left shoulder (and certainly not going as high as the head), a leveling off, and a descent back to the neckline, which it breaks beneath on strong volume. Figure 12.1 shows an example of a very good H&S pattern exhibited by the stock Technical Olympia (symbol TOA). Lines have been drawn on top of the chart to clearly show the shoulders, the head, and the neckline. The circled part indicates where the price broke beneath the neckline, completing the pattern and sending the price sharply downward, as expected. The H&S is a reversal pattern. It indicates that the stock is going to change direction. As such, it is most powerful when a stock has had a long, signi cant move higher in price. The ideal opportunity to exploit an H&S pattern is when there is a lot of air beneath the pattern that is, a long ascent in price with very little resistance on the way down. Take a look at Figure 12.2 for a good example of this. Here is a stock, Helen of Troy Ltd., which moved from $4 to $26 in a little over three years. The rectangle indicates a massive H&S pattern. This one is particularly good because there is an extremely clean neckline (the bottom line of the rectangle) and the right shoulder is lower than the left shoulder, indicating a diminishment in buying strength. Once the price broke beneath the neckline, notice how swiftly the price descended. It took only about a year for the stock to get to $4 again, with very few pauses along the way. Think once more about the psychology behind the pattern. We return to the basic notion that bulls want to see a steady progression of higher
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FIGURE 12.1 This is a near-perfect Head and Shoulders pattern: well de ned left
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shoulder, head, and right shoulder, followed by a break beneath the neckline, which is indicated here by a circle.
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FIGURE 12.2 The Head and Shoulders pattern typically precedes a major decline in price.
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highs and higher lows. During the formation of the left shoulder, assuming the stock has been enjoying a consistent run-up in price, the bulls are still satis ed that all is well. The peak of the left shoulder marks yet another high price in the stock. As the head begins to form, the bulls remain satis ed, because once again they are seeing a higher high in the stock. But something is going wrong, because as the price eases back again, it returns to the same level that the left shoulder was at before (in other words, the neckline). So we no longer have a series of higher highs and higher lows. The lows are matching one another. But at least, from the bullish point of view, there is still strong support at a given price level (again, the neckline). When the right shoulder begins to form, the bulls want to see a new high made, exceeding the price just made by the head price. (Keep in mind the vast majority of individuals watching the stock aren t even looking at a chart, let alone thinking in terms of heads and shoulders). But not only does the price not exceed that of the head, it doesn t even match the price made by the left shoulder. So the stock is actually seen as weakening now, and the buying volume dries up as the price comes to rest, once again, at the neckline. At this point, the market has a decision to make. It can continue to support the price at the equilibrium level it has found. Or the sellers can overcome the buyers, and the neckline will be broken. In the latter case, the H&S pattern is complete, and the stock price is probably in trouble (for the bulls, at least). There is one more element to this story, however, and that is the retracement. Just as you saw retracements with saucer-like patterns, the H&S pattern sometimes sports a retracement as well. In this case, after a brief, quick drop in price, bargain hunters came out and temporarily provided support for the stock. If the H&S pattern holds, the price will make its way back up to the equilibrium point (the neckline), but no further. This provides a golden opportunity in the form of a second chance for those wanting to sell the stock short. Because it is entirely likely once the retracement is complete, the price will begin falling again, and it will fall far past the point where it originally paused.
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