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FIGURE 11.29 This is just about the ideal double bottom: Exactly the same low price was established, and a healthy amount of time nine months separates the two low prices.
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disastrously bad stock following the terrorist attacks in the United States in September 2001. By early 2003, the stock had lost almost its entire value, which is particularly remarkable given AMR s enormous presence in the transportation market. A trader armed with a long-term chart, like the one shown in Figure 11.30, would have noticed something remarkable as the stock plunged from $45 to $2: A low price had been set in late 1974, after which the stock had enjoyed a huge resurgence. This is not to say that this chart represents a double bottom (unless the scale one is using to judge the chart is measured in centuries!). But, in a similar vein, this chart would be helpful to a person trying to determine how low the stock could possibly go in the worst conditions the stock had experienced before (in this case, the huge bear market in 1973 and 1974). There is no doubt the stock could have snapped beneath its prior lifetime low and gone to $0. But in this case, a purchase of AMR at its prior low would have been extremely pro table, as the stock turned on the proverbial dime and blasted higher. It only took one insight the recognition of the lifetime low established two decades prior to recognize this trade.
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FIGURE 11.30 Even though nearly 20 years separated these two bottoms,
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savvy buyers in 2003 could have bought AMR shares at prices not seen since the depths of the bear market in 1974.
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This chapter has introduced us to highlighting charts (both with ovals and rectangles), adding text notes, and identifying the higher highs/higher lows pattern. We have also learned about multiple tops and multiple bottoms, each of which can help us nd important turning points in an equity s direction. We can now extend our knowledge of patterns by examining one of the most useful reversal patterns, the Head and Shoulders.
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So far in this book we have learned about a wide variety of analysis methods for nancial charts. Saucers, multiple tops and bottoms, trendlines, and channels are just a few of the methods we have examined. After seeing so many charts with successful outcomes of applying these techniques, it can be tempting to place a trade on any chart that resembles one of the patterns shown. One might start to think that these patterns yield some kind of mystical power that can be exploited by those who understand them. This is not the case. There is no sorcery involved with technical analysis. Any trade, after all, is a guess. It is hopefully an educated, well-informed guess with appropriate safety measures (like stop orders) in place to minimize your risk. But remember that the word speculate is derived from the Latin verb speculare, which means to observe. It does not mean to gamble. The object of good speculation is to observe well the information in front of you (in our case, well-drawn charts) and make a decision based on sound principles. The patterns in this book don t always work. There are many times when there seems to be a perfect setup, and the charts will go sour on you. That s okay. As long as you have a stop price in place that shields you from unreasonable losses, you can preserve the majority of your capital and move on. So if you lose 5 percent on four different trades and make 50 percent on another trade, all of which were based on the same pattern, you will still come out way ahead, because you contained your losses based on good analytics. With this in mind, we can now turn our full attention to one of the 283
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