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FIGURE 9.24 Solectron (symbol SLR) fell from $30 to $2 once it failed to hold above its support level.
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This is when the pullback begins. Others begin to take an interest in this stock, which is having a half-off sale (it used to be $30 and now it is only $15), so buyers start to nibble at it. As the stock begins to recover to $20 and then to $25, interest in the stock increases. But the balance between sellers and buyers starts to equalize as the stock approaches $30, and as technicians we know the reason why: because we are now at the lower boundary of that mass of buyers who purchased in the $30 to $50 price range. All those people who bought at about $30 now see a reprieve from their misfortune of having a losing stock (keep in mind, they were staring at a 50 percent loss only weeks before), and they rush to push the Sell button on their browsers. The selling starts anew. As you can tell from the graph, the waves of selling and buying continue until the stock is virtually worthless. The selloffs indicate when the sellers are overwhelming the buyers, and the recovery periods show when buyers believe they are getting a bargain on a stock that has bottomed out. This plays itself out until all the selling is completely exhausted. A very similar story happened to Lucent Technologies (symbol LU), which bene ted from the Internet mania of the late 1990s by being a provider of network and communications products (Figure 9.25). The stock got up to about $85 with a huge mass of buyers between $50 and $85. In the summer of 2000, all networking stocks weakened, and LU fell underneath its $50 support level. One thing to note in this graph is that stocks do not collapse instantly: It took a full two years for LU to fully un-
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FIGURE 9.25 One of the big winners of the telecom bubble of 1999/2000 was Lucent (symbol LU). Once the bubble burst, heralded by the rounded top, LU descended from $50 to nearly $0.
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wind and fall, ultimately, to about 55 cents. There was plenty of time to pro t from selling this stock short or owning puts on it. Every stock chart tells a different story, and even though patterns often play out with similar directional movements, the speed of those movements varies quite a bit. Figure 9.26 provides a nice contrast to the LU graph. We see the classic signs of a rounded top: the well-de ned support line, the break beneath support, and the subsequent recovery up to the former support level. Unlike Lucent, however, this stock subsequently only took about a week to wipe out virtually all of its equity value. Those who entered short positions at the recovery level of about $7 would have enjoyed very rapid pro ts in this case. Another crucial aspect of rounded tops is that, to be pro table, they need to be preceded by a meaningful ascent in price. If a stock has traded between $10 and $12 for years, and then it creates a rounded top between $12 and $13, it s not going to matter very much if it falls beneath its support level. The reason is that there is already a huge mass of buyers from $10 to $12 to support it. A more exciting pattern would be for a stock that has gone from $1 to $80 and forms a rounded top between $80 and $90. In that instance, the stock has plenty of room to fall. Take Ipsco (symbol IPS) as an example, shown in Figure 9.27. There is a rounded top over the span of about two-and-a-half months starting in March and ending in mid-May. In less than a year the stock has risen from
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