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Table 19 and Chart 7 summarize the market yields of British consols from 1800 to 1900. The chart also indicates the yields from Table 18 on the principal new long-term government offerings for cash and the yield on some of the frequent exchange offerings, called conversions. The chart also contains a condensed version of the yield history of the British funds during the eighteenth century, so that the record of the nineteenth century can be seen in perspective. The complete history of this one rate throughout a span of 240 years of modern history is summarized in Chart 52, XIX. Table 19 and Chart 7 are based on annual averages of the yields, together with yields at annual high and low prices. Consol yields in the twentieth century are not always representative of long-term British gilt-edged yields, but they were representative throughout most of the nineteenth century. However, during the ninth decade of the nineteenth century, the yields on the 3% consols were not representative of the going rate on long-term funds. The chance of redemption prevented a large price rise above 100, and consols were, in fact, redeemed after the conversion of 1888. Therefore, during this decade, the table and chart include market prices and yields on an issue of 21 2% perpetual annuities, which were in less danger of redemption. The 21 2s sold to yield slightly more than 3% consols from 1865 to 1881 and thereafter rose in price to yield substantially less than 3% consols, as shown by the table on page 214. As the yield on 3s was distorted by redemption price and the yield on 21 2s was not, the history of yields during the ninth decade must be stated in terms of the 21 2% annuities. After the giant refunding of 1888, a new statistical complication was created by the terms of the refunding. The new consols promised 23 4% until 1903 and thereafter 21 2%. Their yield during the interim period 1889 1903 is sometimes calculated by dividing their price into 23 4%. However, they did not carry a long-term promise of 23 4%, and, therefore, this is an overstatement of their yield; the overstatement is proved by comparison with simultaneous lower yields on the old 21 2s. The new consols sold at substantial premiums after 1893. As they were redeemable at the option of Parliament after 1923, some have calculated their yield by amortizing a 21 2% bond downward to par in 1923, and adding the current value of the extra 1 4%. This calculation, resulting in yields below 2% at the market highs of 1896 1898, is probably an understatement. The possibility of redemption of 21 2s twenty-seven years hence may have had little weight with investors interested in current income. The objection is also borne out by the simultaneous 2.20 minimum yield on the old 21 2% annuities. Table 19 shows yields on the 23 4 21 2% consols during this interim period of fourteen years calculated by reducing the market price of the 23 4s by an amount approximately equal to the discounted value of the extra 1 4%. From this lower price the yield of a perpetual 21 2 is derived.
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Table 19 Prices and Yields of Long-Term British Government Securities: Nineteenth Century
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Table 19
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Table 19
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The resulting yields were very close to the market yields on the 21 2% annuities. At this point it is possible and desirable to deal more systematically with those capital values which are the inverse of long-term interest rates in other words, with the market prices of long-term debt instruments. Heretofore, only a few prices have been quoted, such as the market prices of Venetian prestiti, the prices of British funds during most of the eighteenth century, and the prices of French rentes in the final years
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