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Table 10 Summary of Seventeenth-Century Interest Rates
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annulled, the royal revenues were found to be mortgaged seven years ahead. In 1673 an interest rate of 40% was paid by the Spanish Crown for short-term floating debt. (346) State bankruptcies occurred again in 1686 and in 1700, throughout the eighteenth century, and in 1820, 1837, 1851 and 1873. Thus, in this century of contrasts, the trends and levels of interest rates were very different in the various countries reviewed and often foreshadowed much of the future economic and political power of each country.
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Italy In the seventeenth century the history of Italian international banking faded away. It had long outlasted the prosperity of Italian commerce. For Venice we have no reliably reported rates. In a war, 1645 1658, Venice lost most of what remained of her overseas empire. This war was financed by a consolidation of government debt and the sale of treasury bonds under their value. (347) For the first quarter of this century there is a continuation of the series of rates of discount for the 4 5 year deferred dividends of the Bank of St. George (see sixteenth-century Loans to States, page 105). These were as follows: (323)
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Although the luoghi of Genoa were outstanding long after 1625, a disturbance after that date in the value relationship between money of account and effective money as used by the bank makes further interest calculations unreliable. The speculative character of the boom between 1615 and 1619 was marked by a rise in the price of the luoghi from 3920 per 1000 to 5100 per 1000, without any increase in the dividend; thus
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their dividend yield declined to around 1.1% per annum. Thereafter the price dropped sharply to 3965. While the dividend yield on the luoghi rose only to 1.3%, the discount rate of interest rose sharply from 1.1 to 5.5%, the highest annual average since 1568. This decline in price and rise in rates was probably associated with the financial difficulties of Genoa s great protector and creditor, Spain.
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hen the history of Western European interest rates was resumed in the twelfth century, after nine centuries of darkness, the types of credit were stated very generally, and the rates were sparsely reported. Nevertheless, the credit forms were much more recognizable than were many ancient credit forms. In fact, although some were different from modern credit forms, the evolution of modern credit forms can be traced directly from those of the Middle Ages. As early as the twelfth century short-term commercial credit was represented by an early form of the bill of exchange. Medieval census annuities somewhat resembled the modern bond or mortgage or perpetual annuity. For the thirteenth century some quotations were preserved on interest from deposits with bankers and on rates on the marketable perpetual debt of the Republic of Venice. From this century on the data improve, thanks to the excellent research of a few modern economic historians who are also medievalists. There are serious gaps in the data and a great deal of room for additional research, but rates are much more often specifically defined and differentiated than are ancient interest rates. VOLATILITY A new problem for this history arises with the development of the medieval money market and the volatility of the rates on such instruments as the commercial bill. No longer do the data represent principally interest rates on conventional, sluggish normal loans, such as the consumer loans which dominated ancient credit. Consumer credit existed in
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the Middle Ages in volume, but it was largely illicit and probably was often under cover, in part obtained from the pawnshops, in part from the loan sharks, and in part disguised as commercial transactions. The high rates sometimes paid by monarchs have been cited. It can be conjectured that the lesser nobility sometimes paid similar high rates when in need. This history, however, from now on is primarily concerned with volatile commercial rates, deposit rates, annuity rates, and rates paid by free cities. The new factor which complicates rate reporting is the volatility of some of the rates, especially the volatility of commercial loan rates. In this respect medieval rates resembled modern money market rates much more than they did ancient normal rates. In the sixteenth century, for example, prime bill rates in Antwerp were quoted as low as 4% and as high as 13%, and it might be wrong to read a trend into the range; the year 1546 alone saw a range of at least 7 to 13%. This degree of shortterm volatility is not unlike that seen in the modern bill market in New York or in London. It is, however, far greater than the range of the stable rates usually reported from antiquity. When such a wide range was reported for commercial loans, it did not necessarily mean differences in credit risk, although there were big differences, but could be accounted for by day-to-day differences in the condition of the money market. From this distance it is impossible to distinguish. Today, the statistical problem of volatility is met by averaging rates on uniform loans, and thus computing monthly average rates or yearly average rates, and also by reporting highs and lows. No such complete data exist for the Middle Ages. Therefore, the tables often are based only on wide ranges. However, the data are sufficient to provide a good general impression of the sort of interest rates prevailing for good credits most of the time from the twelfth century onward. Interest rate trends can also be distinguished. Table 19 (page 136) attempts to summarize medieval and Renaissance interest rates on best credits. All princely and usurious rates have been omitted. The nominal rates on forced loans and usually the rates on annuities sold by princes have also been omitted, because these latter often represented involuntary compositions. The table consists only of the reported high and low rates of interest for each half century on commercial bills, deposits, and long-term annuities, mortgages or bonds of citizens, towns, and governments. CREDIT STRUCTURE Before attempting to analyze these rates, a few of the differences in the medieval credit structure from ancient and also from modern times should be reviewed together with the similarities and the evolution toward modern forms.
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