WESTERN EUROPE, GERMANY, AND ITALY, TWENTIETH CENTURY in .NET

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WESTERN EUROPE, GERMANY, AND ITALY, TWENTIETH CENTURY
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The yields stood at 9.05% in 1873, fell to 5.40% in 1881, rose to 5.88% in 1883, declined to 5% in 1886, and rose again to 7.55% in 1894 at a time of crisis and reforms. These were far above the bond yields then prevailing in European and American financial centers. After 1894, however, Italian yields came down steadily: 4.90% in 1902, 4.80% in 1905, and 3.86% in 1912, based on a new issue of government 31 2s. This was close to the range of government bond yields elsewhere. The yield spread of Italian government bond yields above British consol yields at these dates was as follows:
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Italian yields rose from 1881 to 1894, when other European yields were falling to all-time lows. They fell sharply from 1894 to 1912, when other European yields were rising. Domestic events evidently had greater influence than did foreign interest-rate trends. After 1912, the trend of bond yields in Italy tended to conform to the general Western pattern. In the twentieth century, Italy suffered from two great wars and postwar inflations. It was a member of the winning coalition in one war and of the losing coalition in the next, but win or lose, both wars were followed by currency debasement and high interest rates. The Italian lira lost more than 99% of its dollar value in the course of the twentieth century to 1960, about the same as the loss sustained by the French franc. Italian bond yields, however, began the twentieth century far above French bond yields and ended the 1950 s not very far from French bond yields. Table 70 provides annual Italian interest rates from 1924. It includes the official discount rate, 1924 1989; a private discount rate, 1924 1939; the rate on Treasury bills, 1952 1971 and 1974 1989; and yields on a series of 5% government bonds from 1937 through 1940 and 1950 through 1969, a series of 31 2% government bonds from 1924 through 1953, and an average of relatively long-term government bonds from 1970 through 1989. The discount rate and government bond yields are portrayed in Chart 71. The table and chart show a swift rise of yields in 1925 and 1926, when the inflation was finally checked and the currency was stabilized. Thereafter, yields declined to 1934, and then rose. During World War II, yields
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EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA SINCE 1900
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declined to 3.22%, a very low rate for Italy and not far above the wartime 3% of England. High yields returned rapidly after 1945. Bond yields were up to 5.73% (for 5s) in 1950 and 6.81% by 1957. They had come down to 5.24% by 1960. Italian government bond yields, until 1960, remained well above English and American yields as illustrated by the decennial averages in the table below; but in 1959 1961 they declined to levels below the rising English yields. In the 1970 s, the Italian yields
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Decennial Averages of Government Bond Yields
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WESTERN EUROPE, GERMANY, AND ITALY, TWENTIETH CENTURY
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Table 70 Italian Interest Rates: Annual Averages, Late Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries
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(continued)
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EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA SINCE 1900
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Table 70
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WESTERN EUROPE, GERMANY, AND ITALY, TWENTIETH CENTURY
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Table 70
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peaked below the British yields but remained well above yields in the United States. During the 1980 s, Italian inflation remained at the doubledigit levels of 1965 1980, whereas inflation was reduced sharply in Britain and somewhat in the United States. As a result, Italian yields rose absolutely and relatively. Table 70 and Chart 71 indicate that short-term Italian interest rates were also relatively high during most of the period reviewed. During the
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EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA SINCE 1900
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1950 s, however, the Italian discount rate was held stable during a period when most other countries were permitting the boom to force up shortterm rates of interest. Thus, the international position of the Italian discount rate changed from high to average to low. In 1958 and 1959, it was lowered from 4% to 31 2%, where at times it stood below the comparable rate in the United States and far below that in England. In the late 1950 s, therefore, the interest-rate trend in Italy tended to break away from the rising trend elsewhere it declined. Bond yields remained relatively high, but short rates became relatively low. In the 1960 s, the Italian official discount rate continued low, in contrast to sharp increases elsewhere; it averaged below the United States rate and far below the British rate. In the 1970 s, however, the Italian discount rate at last joined the world-wide procession to high rates. The advance of rates continued into the 1980 s, a decade that saw Italian interest rates move to very high levels and then decline, but the decline was less than in most other Western nations. The change in short rates is illustrated by the following table of decennial averages: Decennial Averages of Discount Rates
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Italy continued to have a higher and somewhat different pattern of long and short rates in the 1990 s, as compared to other industrialized countries (see 29).
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