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recession, did decline somewhat between 1975 and 1979, it returned to near 1975 levels in 1980 and 1981 (recession years) before climbing steeply to $145.9 billion in 1982, another recession year. After the recessions of the early 1980 s, the deficit, in a departure from past norms, did not decline in recovery and expansion. Instead, it rose to a record $206.9 billion in 1986 and stayed at or above the 1982 level during the last years of the 1980 s. The impetus for this unprecedented result was a major cut in tax rates in the early 1980 s, a policy initiative of the Reagan administration, without corresponding cuts in government spending. As a result of these deficits, federal debt in the hands of the public increased from $344 billion in 1974 to $709 billion in 1980 and to $2200 billion in 1989. As noted above, between 1964 and 1971, the Treasury issued no longterm bonds. Annual issues commenced in 1971, but the outstanding stock of marketable government bonds actually continued to decline through 1974, as more bonds matured than were issued and the Treasury relied increasingly on shorter-term bills and notes to finance its then-modest deficits. That trend changed in 1975, when the outstanding stock of marketable long-term governments began to increase. Between 1974 and 1989, as the national debt soared, the marketable proportion consisting of bonds increased from one-eighth to one-sixth, an absolute rise from $33 billion to over $300 billion. The table on the next two pages lists the chief long-term issues of 1971 1989, a few of which were exchange offerings without a cash price. Because of the frequency of the Treasury s trips to the bond market in these two decades, the progression of coupon rates and average new issue yields provides a fairly accurate portrayal of the dramatic moves of the long-term market in these years. Interest rates, both long and short, declined moderately during 1976, the year of lowest inflation since 1972. The following year, 1977, was one of contrasts. Prime corporate bond yields were remarkably stable from month to month; they touched a low of 7.92% in September, which was to prove the low point of the corporate market between early 1974 and the 1990 s, and averaged only 23 basis points higher in December than in January. Long-term governments rose somewhat more over the course of the year, narrowing the spread between corporates and governments. Short-term rates, in contrast, rose some 150 to 200 basis points in 1977, as the recovery continued and inflation increased. In 1978, inflation (CPI, December to December) reached 9%, and all interest rates rose. Long-term rates rose 75 100 basis points, with governments leading the rise as Treasury bond auctions increased in frequency and amounts raised. Short-term rates soared during the year; Treasury bills rose 260 270 basis points from January to December, while six-month commercial paper climbed from 6.79 to 10.43%.
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Chief Long-Term Treasuries: 1971 1989
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Chief Long-Term Treasuries: 1981 1989
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The years 1979 1982 were remarkable and unprecedented in the long history of American money and capital markets. Inflation (CPI, annual averages) reached double-digit levels in the three years 1979 1981. In the markets, interest rates and yields were relatively stable, albeit at high levels, during the first half of 1979. Prime corporate yields advanced above their 1974 peak from March to May but then retreated to beginning-of-year levels. From July through September, however, most short-term rates rose more than 100 basis points, and an atmosphere of crisis pervaded the markets both in the United States and abroad. It was at this point that the Federal Reserve, under its newly appointed chairman, Paul Volcker, announced an altered approach to monetary policy. The new policy called for the Fed to target monetary aggregates and let interest rates seek whatever levels they would as the markets balanced demand and supply. The ensuing three years witnessed unprecedented volatility of rates and yields, and their climb in late 1981 to the highest levels in U.S. history. The yield fluctuations of 1979 1982 are evident in Chart 40. There were two periods of rapidly advancing yields and two periods of decline, with successive highs and lows above the previous ones. Prime corporate yields rose from 9.93% in September 1979 to 12.96% in March 1980, declined to 10.58% in June 1980, advanced to the record level of 15.49%
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