Expressing Reliability Estimates in .NET

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Expressing Reliability Estimates
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The preceding discussion brings us to a key question: HOW do you express the reliability of your system If you ask a system designer, they might respond 0.91. There is a fundamental problem with this response. Remember, reliability is more than simply picking a number. Reliability estimates require four key elements: 1. 2. 3. 4. Probability of successfully completing a de ned mission. Bounded mission duration. Elapsed operating time since the start of the mission. Prescribed set of OPERATING ENVIRONMENT conditions.
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Therefore, when you simply respond that your system reliability is 0.91, you have failed to conditionally constrain the parameter in terms of the other three qualifying elements. Reliability can be speci ed in several ways. The most common approach is to express reliability as a percentage. Consider the following example: EXAMPLE 50.2
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Electronics reliability can be stated as a not-to-exceed failure rate, typically as number/percentage of failures per hour or failures per million hours, in a given environment.
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The problem of specifying in these rate terms is that redundancies, which can improve overall mission reliability, increase the potential rate of failure by adding to the parts count. When speci-
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50
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Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability
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ed as a percentage, redundancies can easily be calculated that show the mission reliability improvement. Reliabilities are sometimes stated in terms of a Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF). However, instantaneous failure rates change with each hour of operation and operating condition. The MTBF is the reciprocal of the failure rate ONLY when using a NEGATIVE exponential distribution! In general, the negative exponential distribution applies ONLY to systems that have all exponentially distributed components, such as electronics, with NO redundancies. In keeping with the true de nition of reliability and its four elements, it is strongly suggested that reliability be expressed as a PERCENTAGE instead of MTBF for highly complex systems. The same applies to PRODUCT and SUBSYSTEM allocation. Additionally, reliability engineers suggest avoiding the speci cation of reliability below the Subsystem Level. This may unnecessarily constrain the solution set that might otherwise improve overall reliability and reduce cost. Exceptions include externally procured components based on proper reliability allocations. Guidepost 50.1 Our discussions to this point focus on the reliability of systems to accomplish their missions of a speci ed duration and set of OPERATING ENVIRONMENT conditions. Each mission assumes that the system will begin operating at a given level of capability, performance, and physical condition. If properly operated and maintained in accordance with the prescribed PROCEDURAL DATA instructions, the User can expect a useful service life of XX hours, years, and so forth. Under these assumptions the system can expect a nominal failure rate that varies over the service life pro le. So, how is the nominal failure rate achieved This brings us to our next discussion topic, maintainability.
50.4 SYSTEM MAINTAINABILITY
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When systems fail, they impact the revenue stream or could adversely affect the operator and public. Corrective actions are required immediately to return the system to normal active service. The ef ciency and effectiveness of these actions centers on the system s maintainability. Maintainability is a measure of a system, product, or service s capability to be returned from a failed state to a functioning state within time limits established by a performance standard. Maintainability must be an integral part of the SE Design segment beginning with Contract Award. The starting point begins with formulation of the maintenance concept, our next topic.
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The Importance of the Maintainability Concept
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The cornerstone for planning system maintainability resides in the maintenance concept. The maintenance concept often begins as a basic strategy addressed conceptually in the system Concept of Operations (ConOps) document. The ConOps document provides an initial starting point for documenting the maintenance concept unless there is a compelling need for a stand-alone document. As a conceptual strategy, the ConOps documents the WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE, and HOW the system, product, or service will be maintained. For example, maintenance on complex systems may be performed by: 1) the User, 2) an internal support organization, 3) contractors, or 4) a combination of these. Subsequently, a System Operations and Support (O&S) Plan or Integrated Support Plan (ISP) may be required or prepared to document the maintenance concept implementation details such as types of maintenance and levels of maintenance.
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