Conducting a Process to Elicit Quanti ed Judgment in .NET

Generating UPC A in .NET Conducting a Process to Elicit Quanti ed Judgment
21.6 Conducting a Process to Elicit Quanti ed Judgment
UPC-A Supplement 5 Decoder In VS .NET
Using Barcode Control SDK for Visual Studio .NET Control to generate, create, read, scan barcode image in .NET framework applications.
A common misconception in eliciting expert judgment is that people carry fully-formed probabilistic opinions around in their heads on almost any subject of interest and that the focus of an elicitation process is merely to access these pre-existing opinions. Actually,
Creating UPC-A Supplement 2 In Visual Studio .NET
Using Barcode generation for VS .NET Control to generate, create UPCA image in .NET applications.
EXPERT OPINION
Scan UPCA In .NET
Using Barcode reader for VS .NET Control to read, scan read, scan image in Visual Studio .NET applications.
people do not carry fully-formed constructs around in their heads but develop them during the process of elicitation. Thus, the elicitation process needs to help experts think about uncertainty, needs to instruct and clarify common errors in how people quantify uncertainty, and needs to lay out checks and balances to improve the consistency with which probabilities are assessed. A successful process of elicitation is one that helps experts construct carefully reasoned judgments. The process should never be approached as a cookbook procedure, for the results will be unsatisfactory, as will the risk assessment in which the results are used. The steps in using expert elicitation to quantify judgmental probabilities are the following: 1. Decide on the general uncertainties for which the probabilities need to be assessed. 2. Select a panel of experts displaying a balanced spectrum of expertise about the identi ed uncertainties. 3. Re ne issues in discussions with the panel, and decide on the speci c uncertainties for which the probabilities need to be assessed. 4. Expose the experts to a short training program on concepts, objectives, and methods of eliciting judgmental probability, and on common errors that people make when trying to quantify probability. 5. Elicit the judgmental probabilities of individual experts on issues pertinent to their individual expertise. 6. Allow the group of experts to interact, supported by a facilitator, to explore hypotheses, points of view, and quanti ed estimates of probability, toward the goal of aggregating probabilities and resolving the breadth of opinion. 7. Document the speci c process used to elicit judgmental probabilities and communicate the results back to the panel of experts. It is important for credibility as well as defensibility that the process be well documented, open to inspection, and methodologically transparent to peer review.
Drawing Bar Code In .NET Framework
Using Barcode drawer for Visual Studio .NET Control to generate, create barcode image in VS .NET applications.
21.6.1 Choosing experts: who should be on the panel
Decoding Barcode In VS .NET
Using Barcode reader for .NET framework Control to read, scan read, scan image in .NET framework applications.
The choice of experts is the most important step in determining success or failure of the expert elicitation process. Depending on personality, experience, and technical background, individual experts may serve different functions. These individuals can be categorized into distinct types: Resources individuals with special knowledge of a problem, technology, site, or project. Proponents individuals with a particular and strongly argued point of view about a technology, issue, or project. Evaluators individuals with open mind, willing to judge objectively the credibility of different hypotheses, points of view, or opinions. Facilitators individuals versed in the technical issues who are also willing to lead discussions and manage interactions among other experts. To be successful, an expert panel usually needs to include an evaluator and a facilitator. Resources and proponents are typically used to elucidate speci c issues, to give depth in
Printing UPC-A Supplement 5 In Visual C#
Using Barcode printer for VS .NET Control to generate, create GTIN - 12 image in .NET framework applications.
CONDUCTING A PROCESS TO ELICIT QUANTIFIED JUDGMENT
UPC-A Maker In .NET
Using Barcode printer for ASP.NET Control to generate, create Universal Product Code version A image in ASP.NET applications.
speci c areas; they are typically not used to give balance and breadth. It is important in considering potential experts that individuals be willing to be objective, willing to commit time, and willing to interact with others in a professional manner. Panel members who cannot be counted on to commit to these terms harm the process more than they help it.
Printing GS1 - 12 In VB.NET
Using Barcode creator for .NET framework Control to generate, create UCC - 12 image in Visual Studio .NET applications.
21.6.2 Systematic process of elicitation
Encode Code 128 Code Set C In .NET Framework
Using Barcode printer for VS .NET Control to generate, create Code 128 Code Set B image in .NET applications.
The process of eliciting expert opinion in judgmental probabilities has ve phases: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Motivating phase Training phase Structuring (deterministic) phase Assessing (probabilistic) phase Documenting phase
GS1-128 Maker In .NET Framework
Using Barcode creator for .NET framework Control to generate, create UCC - 12 image in VS .NET applications.
The rst two, motivating and training, set the stage for the whole process. The next two, structuring and assessing, comprise the central effort of the process, the former establishing a structure for the uncertainties to be assessed, and the latter performing the actual quanti cation. The process is complete with documentation, the purpose of which is to create a defensible set of results. To obtain consistent and defensible results, it is important that a systematic process like this be used, although individual organizations may tailor the details of the protocol to their own special needs.
Generate Barcode In .NET Framework
Using Barcode encoder for .NET framework Control to generate, create barcode image in VS .NET applications.
Create C 2 Of 5 In Visual Studio .NET
Using Barcode printer for .NET Control to generate, create 2/5 Industrial image in VS .NET applications.
Draw GS1-128 In C#
Using Barcode maker for .NET framework Control to generate, create UCC - 12 image in VS .NET applications.
Decoding Code 39 Extended In Visual Studio .NET
Using Barcode decoder for Visual Studio .NET Control to read, scan read, scan image in VS .NET applications.
Reading Barcode In Java
Using Barcode recognizer for Java Control to read, scan read, scan image in Java applications.
Encoding Universal Product Code Version A In VB.NET
Using Barcode drawer for .NET Control to generate, create UPC-A Supplement 5 image in VS .NET applications.