CANDLE CHARTS: Lighting the Path in .NET

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CANDLE CHARTS: Lighting the Path
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The chart examples used here, however, show the yen futures contract traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the finest exchange in the world for currency trading for a position trader or someone who wants to trade options on currencies. The first is a monthly chart (Figure 4.33) of the Japanese yen from late 1996 through February 2002. What does this chart reveal to you Some might conclude that the lows in 1998 could be retested and that the market has more room to go lower. However, I saw an area where the 2002 market was testing the lows of the moving averages in 1998, not the actual lows. Go back in time and think what was happening in 1998 the Asian financial crisis, Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund collapse, the Fed lowered interest rates, and Japanese Central Bank intervention was helping to prop up the yen. The second chart (Figure 4.34) is a daily chart of the March yen contract that indicates a potential bottom forming in February 2002. A potential bullish piercing pattern and the inability of the market to show any followthrough weakness near a substantial low pretty well gave a clue that a benchmark low was being established.
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Monthly yen: What does it say (Source: FutureSource. Reprinted with
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Daily yen: Go long (Source: FutureSource. Reprinted with permission.)
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One more aspect about deciding on the future price direction of this market was that the overall pessimism of analysts, traders, and the media was high. Bullish Consensus and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission s Commitments of Traders report revealed that large and small speculators were mostly short this market and that commercial traders were long. (These reports are discussed in detail in 9.) Here s a summary of how a decision was made to go long or to buy call options: The investment community was extremely bearish. The monthly long-term chart showed the current market price was digging into the area where the moving average lows (not price lows) had occurred in 1998. The daily chart was demonstrating that prices were supported near the 7450 level. On a fundamental note, the Japanese Central Bank was intervening to support the yen s value, adding a strong buying force to the market mix.
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CANDLE CHARTS: Lighting the Path
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Now you have a market that has made a significant decline back down to an area where governments step in to provide price protection and the speculating community was bearish after the fact. The daily candle charts were signaling to me that the downmove was subsiding. The third chart (Figure 4.35) shows what had happened on the June yen chart and why it helps not to get too bearish in the hole. The fact that the charts from different time frames helped me conclude that a buying opportunity might exist was also the correct call. The move that occurred between the 7450 and 7950 levels resulted in a short, sharp 500-point rally. Notice that it took this market nearly another month to begin moving, but move it did! Of course, you might say, Well, that was too long to wait around to make money. Fine. The important point is that you can see that selling short would have been a bad decision with prices near the 7450 area. This type of charting analysis may not have gotten you to buy the low and stay with the position, but I do believe that by checking different time periods you would not have sold short either, risking a lot of money.
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Daily yen: getting the reward. (Source: FutureSource. Reprinted with
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The weekly bond chart (Figure 4.36) provides another example of multiple candle patterns that come together to confirm price direction and give you confidence to act to stay on the right side of the market. The morning doji star that formed in March signaled that a major bottom was in place and gave a clear buy signal. Then the continuation pattern of a rising three method provided a clue that the trend was going to continue. Acting like the western bull flag formation, this pattern projected prices would reach the 108 level. As you can see from the chart, that price objective was attained, plus another 5 points. One other point about different time frames: If it takes, for example, three time frames for a pattern to develop, it usually takes at least three or more time frames for the results in this case, the price advance to develop. These aren t the only candle chart patterns and signals. However, if you would like more information on the complexities of this technique and want to continue your studies in this field, I can refer you to several books on this
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