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Beige Book A combination of economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve regional districts, the Beige Book is aptly named because of the color of its cover (really). This report is usually released two weeks before the monetary policy meetings of the FOMC. The information on economic conditions is then used by the FOMC to set interest rate policy. If the Beige Book portrays an overheating economy or inflationary pressures, the Fed may be more inclined to raise interest rates to moderate the economic pace. Conversely, if the Beige Book portrays economic difficulties or recession conditions, the Fed may see a need to lower interest rates to stimulate activity. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and accounts for almost every sector of the economy. Analysts use this figure to track the economy s overall performance because it usually indicates how strong or weak the economy is and helps to predict the potential profit margin for companies. It also helps analysts determine whether economic growth is accelerating or slowing down. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits and higher share values.
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FUNDAMENTALS: The Market Driver
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International Trade and Current Account Figures These numbers measure the difference between imports and exports of both goods and services. Changes in the level of imports and exports are an important tool for gauging economic trends, both domestically and overseas. These reports can have a profound effect on the value of the dollar. That value, in turn, can help or hurt multinational corporations whose profits overseas can diminish when they convert their funds back to the United States, especially if the U.S. dollar is overvalued. Another valuable aspect of such reports is that imports can help to indicate U.S. demand for foreign goods, and exports may show demand for U.S. goods in overseas countries. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) This report is a composite index of 10 economic indicators that typically lead overall economic activity. The LEI index helps to predict the health of the economy and may be an early clue about the prospects for recession or economic expansion. Consumer Price Index (CPI) The CPI measures the average price level of goods and services purchased by consumers and is the most widely followed indicator of inflation in the United States. Monthly changes represent the inflation rate that is quoted widely and influences a number of markets. Inflation is a general increase in the price of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how data such as the CPI influence the markets. Higher energy prices, manufacturing cost increases, medical costs, imbalances in global supply and demand of raw materials, and prices of food products all weigh on this report. For example, if gas prices at the pump escalate and the cost to fill up your car rises from, say, $30 a week to $50 or even $60 a week, you will have less spending money for other items. It may not affect you immediately, but a longer duration of higher prices will hit your pocketbook. Even weather can be a factor for short-term changes in food prices. What would be the cost of tomatoes at the grocery store after a damaging freeze in California or in Georgia Maybe $3 or $4 per pound Any grocery shopper can probably recall when such price spikes occurred. The restaurants that serve salads lose revenue as well as the farmer whose crop is destroyed. These factors all play a part in the CPI number. The core rate is the inflation number that excludes the volatile food and energy components. Economists track these numbers; you should, too. Producer Price Index (PPI) Formerly known as the Wholesale Price Index, the PPI is a measure of the average prices for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods paid by producers. The PPI measures price changes in the manufacturing sector. The inflation rate may depend on a general increase in the prices of goods and services.
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