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Testing! Roddy exclaimed. Testing Drug testing Testing for sexually transmitted diseases George nodded. They were nearly giddy with excitement. We ve been backtesting a new short-term strategy and we had a breakthrough. We haven t slept for 48 hours. I nodded. Neither have I. Banes! Roddy yelled. He actually picked me up and bear-hugged me and screamed: You ve been testing, you bugger! Haven t you! I couldn t help but laugh. He was twice my size and had 50 times the energy of a normal human. I admitted to them that I d been testing and had some breakthroughs of my own, but I needed to talk to people who knew more than I did to confirm what I d found. You can talk to us, George offered, and then pulled two chairs up next to me. Roddy was too excited to sit down and couldn t wait to hear what I d found. I decided to share with them my testing of the horizontal support and resistance. They ate it up.
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THE LESSON IN BACKTESTING
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RODDY: So how many pairs did you look at ME: Only five. The EUR/USD first, then the GBP/USD, the GBP/JPY, the EUR/JPY, the USD/CAD, and the EUR/CAD. WINNIPEG GEORGE: What time frames Mostly long-term ME: Right. All long term. But I did drill down to the shorter time frames to verify stops and profit targets. WINNIPEG GEORGE: This is really similar to what Roddy and I ve been looking at. We call it short-term trading from the longer term charts. ME: That s a good name. I kind of feel the same way. I m just jumping on for some pips on a reversal. Most of the trades aren t open for more than a couple of days. I liked planning them from the four-hour and the daily charts the most, but I have a feeling that this would work on the onehour charts, too. RODDY: You ve got a good feelin , Banes! It shorely does work on the onehour! That s me favorite chart! ME: Why is the one-hour your favorite WINNIPEG GEORGE: It s his favorite because he doesn t have the attention span to look at anything longer term than that. RODDY: Not true! I can look at the fifteen-minute chart all day long! WINNIPEG GEORGE: That s shorter term.
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ADVENTURES OF A CURRENCY TRADER
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RODDY: Oh. Right you are! ME: I did a lot of work to analyze this stuff. I looked at twenty trades on each of the pairs, and kept notes on all of them. WINNIPEG GEORGE: Your notes are all over the place. You wrote all of this down by hand ME: Yep. I guess there is an easier or better way, but I started rolling along and couldn t stop myself. WINNIPEG GEORGE: You need to start keeping this information in spreadsheets. ME: I don t know how to use spreadsheets. WINNIPEG GEORGE: Well, you can worry about that later, but let me show you an example of why it s so important. I m opening one of our testing spreadsheets right here. We just type in the entry price, the closing price, and the spreadsheet tallies up the wins and losses. It gives us a final pip count for wins and losses. It tells us how big the average winner is, the average loser. It tells us our win percentage which is how often we can expect to have a winning trade, based on the information we ve already provided. ME: And you do this for all of your testing RODDY: Don t leave home without it! We never test without it. We spreadsheet everything. We have spreadsheets on top of bloody spreadsheets. I can hardly keep track of all of em. Banes, did you say that you ve only tested twenty trades so far ME: Yes! Twenty per currency pair. So I actually finished testing one hundred, in total. RODDY: One hundred s not enough, boy! You gotta do better than that! ME: How much better WINNIPEG GEORGE: Well, we spent the entire weekend testing. We got through about a thousand trades. ME: [silence] RODDY: Yeah, Harry. Did you do a thousand trades I think not! ME: How did you get that many done WINNIPEG GEORGE: We sat on the couch with our laptops one of us with charts and the other one with spreadsheets. We had food brought in, and we watched basketball, baseball, and cartoons, and only took breaks to go to the bathroom. We didn t shower, answer the phone, or interact with humankind in any way. It was complete focus. ME: And you tested the same system, over and over again WINNIPEG GEORGE: We actually did five hundred trades each on two variations of the same system. The main system we tested was a combination of the CCI [Commodity Channel Index] oscillator with long-term support and resistance. The second variation, that we tested simultane-
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