ADVENTURES OF A CURRENCY TRADER in .NET framework

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ADVENTURES OF A CURRENCY TRADER
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I admitted that although I had read about all those things, I d not found the time to implement them. Well, Harry, Craig began. You first of all shouldn t start with the idea of trying to figure out what Harvey is thinking. That s not going to work. If you are going to justify this trade, you are going to have to come up with some type of analysis of your own. I have no idea where to start. I know what a trendline is, but I m not sure what to do with them. I gotta run, Harry. You can figure this out. But doing some testing and experimenting on your own is going to make a huge difference.
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FORCING MYSELF TO DO SOME LINES
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I sat in front of my computer screen for at least 20 minutes before making a move. Determined to not give in, I prepared myself to sit there until I at least drew some lines or plotted some indicators on my chart. I finally decided that I would at least draw a line at the entry price of 1.2200. I would start there. That was my goal: the number that I wanted to justify. After I drew the line, my chart looked like the one in Figure 14.2. At least I had a starting point now. I could see where I was planning to buy. Was it wrong of me to be back doing this trade Although I was doing my own research here, I couldn t take credit for the original idea. It oc-
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FIGURE 14.2
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Harry s entry price.
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Back to Square One
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curred to me then that Harvey wanted me not only to explain why the trade was reasonable, but also to start developing my own ideas. Harvey had other traders to work with. He wouldn t be available forever to keep feeding me trading ideas that I would go home and justify. Part of what I wanted to do that night was to figure out how to plan these trades on my own. The books I d read had a lot to say about indicators moving averages, oscillators, and so forth. It seemed rational that I would jump into some of those. So I added a 200-period moving average as a dotted line. The moving average was just what it sounded like: an average of the price over a certain period of time in this case 200 periods of four hours each. Once plotted, I saw that it hovered above the current price and seemed to have stopped the currency pair from rising earlier in the month of April. Perhaps the average would stop it again and that was a good justification for the trade. But how could I say that price was going to hit the 200 moving average again And that it would fall back That was stretching things a bit. The books also talked about oscillators. These were indicators that supposedly showed when a currency pair would be overbought (and ready for a move down) or oversold (and ready for a move back upward). I flipped open to a page in one of the books that talked about the stochastic. That seemed popular enough! So I added that, too, with the standard settings of 14, 3, 3. This time I was getting closer. The stochastic was rising and nearing the top. Could it be as simple as that That I could sell the pair every time the oscillator reached the top And buy every time it reached the bottom Perhaps. But there was no way that Harvey was basing his entire trading system on something that simple. The MACD, or moving average convergence-divergence, was an indicator of momentum. It was basically a way to follow a trend, built from moving averages. Perhaps that would provide an extra clue. One of the books talked about adding a second or third indicator to confirm what I was seeing on the first. That seemed reasonable getting some backup. Actually, it sounded more than reasonable. It was perfectly clear to me that any successful trader wasn t going to base his entire strategy off one indicator. No wonder that I had felt uncomfortable with the stochastic alone. Or with just the moving average. So I added the MACD, with the standard settings of 26, 12, and 9. I didn t really know what those meant, but who cared I was trying to justify a trade, not write a book report on Gerald Appel, the creator of the indicator. It told me nothing at all. I could hardly understand what it meant in the first place. Now I had a hill-and-valley shaped thingy in the middle of the MACD and some lines crossing above and below. The lines were underneath and the hilly shape was sort of flat. Ho-hum. This was worthless. I d really rather see the indicator with the hills going down or the lines going down as soon as the EUR/USD price hit 1.2200. Maybe Harvey and Hank
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