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While the original set of 11,000 real-world backorders appears to be a fairly large sample size, it only represents a subset of all the possible combinations of known variables that may be observed in the real world Increasing the sample size to include more real-world projects will leave fewer missing values in the conditional probability tables As more projects become available in future, researchers may be able to obtain more complete probability distributions of the birth to last ship date variable Principally, the concept of backorder, as currently used by the defense logistics community, is vague and provides for no differentiation between temporal backorder and B3I war room criticalparts Under the B3I initiative, if the lack of a critically needed part is hindering military operations, the defense logistics community is mobilized quickly to procure, manufacture, and deliver the part However, many of these B3I parts are not temporally backordered that is, they do not have long lead times It is not that the procurement system and industrial base are functioning abnormally; rather, in the judgment of of cers involved in ordering parts identi ed as B3I parts, the parts were simply critical enough that they required additional expediting and due diligence Temporal backorders, on the contrary, are parts that have long administrative and/ or production lead times This project addressed a problem of estimating birth to last ship date distribution for backorder aging Future studies may endeavor to add qualitative data for richness Gathering more recent data may also prove useful to understanding the backorder phenomenon The use of nonparametric methods such as neural networks, tabu search, genetic algorithms, Bayesian networks, Markov processes, simulation, ant colony optimization and particle swarm applications may also provide insights when investigating the B3I phenomenon
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42 CALIBRATING EXECUTIVE EXPECTATIONS Messages to executives from this experience include the following:
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Executives must oversee technology-driven improvements to maximize bene t, since there is no auto pilot The presence of data strategy can provide needed detail direction in the absence of executive hands-on involvement, but this is not a substitute as both are needed Activities and projects that are narrow in focus may harbor bene ts and solutions that are broadly applicable Exploiting bene ts from local and speci c applications requires executive insight, foresight, and leadership so they do not become latent, underutilized, or lost opportunities Formalize strategy to guide and direct implementation activities, as this focuses improvement behavior
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CALIBRATING EXECUTIVE EXPECTATIONS
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Fund improvements commensurate with proofs-of-concept and followthrough Technical data exchange can be accomplished via model-driven capability with expected and advertised bene ts Special contemporary skill, knowledge, and experience are essential to achieving technical solutions Technology is a catalyst and complementary with executive and managerial leadership to optimize performance
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Thinking About Federal Procurement Through the Lens of Smart Data Strategy The US government procurement problem has caught the current president s attention as he and the administration believe more competition and accountability are needed From the view of the president, one aspect of the problem is too much outsourcing to contractors whereby they are performing work that the president believes should be done by government workers as contractors are too expensive and perform without suf cient integrity, oversight, and authority One question the executive might ask is, What work should be performed by government workers and what should be outsourced to contractors What are the business rules or policies governing this decision Does the workload support career staf ng, or does workload rise and fall such that contractors provide a more exible means of getting work done What is the government s capacity to employ workers in a deep economic recession In our terms, does the government have suf cient capacity to process and manage the volume of procurements with government staff, given the policy direction that government professionals are more desirable than contractors to perform this work Can smart data be employed in context with automated contracting technology to improve reviews and focus more ef ciently on prospective problems Can contracting problems be predicted based on an analysis of past performance What procurement attributes might indicate potential problems such that they can be prevented or mitigated in a timelier manner There are other aspects of the problem According to a Washington Post article [13], Frank Cramm, a senior economist at the Rand Corporation, says that most major weapon systems tend to be 10 to 15 years old by the time they make it through the cycle and into deployment When we hear this, we don t know if this is good, bad, or indifferent because there is insuf cient data to form a conclusion In our approach, we are at square one in the six by six matrixes, problem analysis What is the problem de nition What data is needed to support the ndings bounded by the problem de nition By the time our book is in print, the administration will have launched an investigation into the procurement activity, as has every previous administration Would starting this activity with a smart data orientation make any difference
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