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Worldwide energy consumption has increased 20-fold during the twentieth century Today, the aggregate energy used around the world equals the physical work of 306 billion human beings It is as if every man, woman, and child on the planet each had a crew of 46 people working for them In the high-tech United States every person has 238 such hypothetical workers2 Rising levels of productivity and consumption create a snowball of energy usage Americans today consume 30 times what they did
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in 1929, and they live in houses ve times larger than a century ago3 These huge houses are lled with heating, air conditioning, microwave ovens, and dozens of electronic gadgets and appliances that The Little House on the Prairie s Laura Ingalls couldn t have dreamt of Moreover, we have more than 800 million cars globally shuttling us from homes to work to shopping centers; and then there are the factories that produce this lifestyle A look at the recent past shows the quickening pace of energy use Between 1970 and 2004 total world energy consumption more than doubled from 204 quadrillion Btu to 447 quadrillion Btu an annual growth of 2 percent, occurring predominantly in the G74 With the rise of emerging markets, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates an increase of 57 percent of total world demand from 2004 to 2030 (see Figure 31)5 Growing prosperity means we can expect one to two billion formerly poor people to soon adopt energy-intensive US lifestyle patterns While traditionally wealthy countries should see a 24 percent increase in energy usage by 2030, emerging market energy use may
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Table 31 Energy Consumption, 2006
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Country MTOE Percent of World Usage
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United States China Russia Japan India Germany Canada France United Kingdom Brazil World Total
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1,721 1,147 518 386 277 248 245 195 171 160 7,912
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218% 145% 65% 49% 35% 31% 31% 25% 22% 20% 1000%
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Source: US Energy Administration, International Energy Annual, 2007
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se eing the e le phant
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History 559 511 447 400 283 200 309 347 366 400 Projections 607 654 702
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600 Quadrillion Btu
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0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
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World Energy Consumption, 1980 2030
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Source: Energy Information Administration
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double in that time Overall, energy demand by developing countries should surpass that of industrialized countries by 2010 and be a third larger by 2030, as these developing countries continue to industrialize and urbanize6 China alone is creating huge demand: After only two decades of rapid expansion, China is now the second largest energy consumer in the world, on its way to surpassing the United States China s energy consumption has been growing at an average 11 percent since 2002, and the current low per-capita energy use only one-seventh of that of the United States suggests that this growth will be sustained for the next several years7 By the end of 2007, China had 159 million total motor vehicles including 60 million cars, a 102 percent increase over 2006, according to the Chinese government s statistics8 Experts forecast continuing annual car sale increases of about 10 percent in the Chinese market for decades to come, as ownership grows from just 44 per 1,000 citizens toward levels found in wealthy nations between 300 and 600 per 1,000 for European countries and more than a whopping 750 in the United States9 Considering trends in both the industrialized world and in emerging countries (shown in Figure 32), there is a desperate need for global cooperation to face the challenges of ever-increasing energy demand
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300 250 Quadrillion Btu 200 150 100 12% 50 EE/FSU Industrialized History Projections 45% 43%
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Share of World Total
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Figure 32 World Energy Consumption, Industrialized and Developing Countries: 1970 2025
Source: Energy Information Administration 50 40 Quadrillion Btu 30 20 10 0 1980
Nuclear Electricity Nonhydro Renewables Hydroelectricity Coal Natural Gas
History
Projections
Liquids
Figure 33 World Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1980 to 2030 (quadrillion Btu)
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
China: From the Bucket to the Drum Laundering was one of the earliest domestic activities of human society The evolution from traditional clothes washing on riverbeds, to the scrubboard in 1797, to modern washing machines today, is a great metaphor for human development and industrialization Without running water, gas or electricity, (Continued )