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(Continued ) and Ethanol production So while supply of some grains has been historically high, prices spiked recently because global demand for grains not only just for human consumption but also for animals and alternative energy grew faster Moreover, in oil and agriculture markets, nancial speculators have driven up demand for commodities (although they can quickly change their market views) Adding another layer of complexity, commodity prices are tied to foreign exchange markets Most world commodity contracts are denominated in US dollars So the value of goods like oil, gold, and grains, uctuate with the dollar s value Consider, for example, what would happen if the dollar depreciates against the euro Say $1 was originally worth 1 If a barrel of oil cost $100, it would have also cost 100 Then, the dollar weakened so that $1 is now worth only 8 After the depreciation, oil would only cost 80 Since the underlying value of the oil hasn t changed, its dollar price may get pushed closer to $125 (the new equivalent of 100) That means only dollar-based buyers see a spike in oil prices, while euro prices remain more constant, and oil sellers aren t hurt as much by the dollar s fall The relatively in exible supply of commodities and the effects of foreign exchange and speculative investing drove oil and food prices to new heights by mid-2008 As quickly as prices rose, however, they fell, proving that commodity markets are just as prone to collapsing as they are to spiking The recent market gyrations are warning signs of the new potential stresses in our Macro Quantum world, with many complex variables now affecting markets and lifestyles
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Hydrocarbon Man shows little inclination to give up his cars, his suburban home, and what he takes to be not only the conveniences but the essentials of his way of life The people of the developing world give no inclination that they want to deny themselves the bene ts of [a fossil fuel] powered economy, whatever the environmental questions And any notion of scaling back the world consumption of [ fossil fuel] will be in uenced by the extraordinary population growth ahead Daniel Yergin1
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ne of the few aspects of globalization that economists, politicians, scientists, and ordinary people agree on is that it boosts energy demand As world living standards rise, so does the need for power Over the last century, this increase has been met almost exclusively by fossil-based sources oil, gas, coal, and related products But it can t continue forever Uncertain supplies and unprecedented demand have made our hydrocarbon economy extremely pricey, even before considering its nasty side effects: Fossil fuel dependence concentrates wealth in a few geopolitical hotspots and produces greenhouse emissions, both of which jeopardize the capitalist peace Our contemporary lifestyle is predicated on relatively cheap and reliable power Compare an old episode of Little House on the Prairie
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with Desperate Housewives to understand this quick historic evolution The cost and form of energy available determines almost everything an individual or an entire country can accomplish, including where we live and work, how we travel, what we eat, how we entertain ourselves and even how we sleep It s tough to imagine a world without hydrocarbons, but our dependence is a recent condition During the early Industrial Revolution, lamplight was fueled by whale oil and chopped wood provided heat But in 1856 the Polish chemist Ignacy Lukasiewicz developed an easier way of re ning kerosene from petroleum His discovery brought an end to the whaling industry, and ushered in the brighter (literally!) modern era Following major oil discoveries in 1859 and the late nineteenth century re nements in coal-burning power plants, Daniel Yergin s Hydrocarbon Man was born Very few countries are self-suf cient in power, putting energy at the heart of Macro Quantum cross-border discussions It is symbiotically bound with trade, in uencing and being in uenced by international capital ows, as well as in ation and exchange rates Energy affects security not only because it is necessary for economic growth, but also because one form nuclear can be converted to horri c weaponry And of course, it poses huge environmental impacts Our current power paradigm has failed to deal with the challenges of these interlinkages, requiring a major rethinking of energy s uses, sources, and costs
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