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To safeguard against doomsday scenarios, rising powers should be integrated into the global order through holistic, rule-based institutions This has been done successfully in the past; indeed, the G7 arose in a situation similar to today This group helped forge the rules, behavioral codes, and mechanisms for the collective progress and orderly con ict resolution of the past three decades Before the creation of the G7, nancial affairs were managed through the Bretton Woods agreement, which set xed exchange rates 45 As Japan and Western Europe recovered from World War II, the global economy changed drastically The return to convertibility of Western European currencies at the end of 1958 and of the Japanese yen in 1964 facilitated the vast expansion of international nancial transactions and deepened monetary interdependence A new pluralistic distribution of economic power led to increasing dissatisfaction with
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the privileged role of the US dollar as the international currency Additionally, the emergence of large private banking groups allowed for huge international transfers of capital for investment purposes as well as for hedging and speculating against exchange rate uctuations By 1970, the United States was no longer the sole economic superpower The United States consistently ran a current account de cit and held less than 16 percent of international reserves By 1973, the weakening dollar led to the demise of Bretton Woods The United States could no longer afford to be banker to the world A global recession took hold as currencies were oated
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In 1975, the G7 emerged out of the rubble of Bretton Woods as an informal forum to manage the international monetary regime The G7 members were the major economic players of the era The rise of new economies and private actors has thrown the utility of the G7/G8 order into question The countries of the G7 are still an essential part of the global economy: Together, they represent 14 percent of the world population and nearly two-thirds of the world s GDP, but the group no longer adequately represents the global system s expanded roster At the fall 2007 G7 nancial ministers meeting, China s growing current account surplus and the need for the Renmindi (RMB) exchange rate to rise dominated the debate46 But China is not a member of the G7 As we ve seen, China is fast becoming a key linchpin of the global economic system along with a few other countries Its reserves fuel US spending, and this unhealthy relationship has held down interest rates the world over A decade or two ago, speedy monetary growth in emerging economies was of little concern to the central banks of the developed world If the Central Bank of Turkey pumped out cash, it would simply cause hyperin ation there But today these economies play a larger role in the world economy and cross-border nancial ows are much bigger The liquidity pumped out by central banks is owing into global nancial markets The United States and the G7 should work on reforming the institutional framework so that more countries can bene t from
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economic openness and become vested in the global system While the United States still carries the most economic and political clout, it needs to give rising powers incentives to buy in to the system and create a strong oversight system to ensure private actors are behaving The existing international organizations the World Bank, WTO, and G7 are based on the precepts of free trade and capitalist peace, but they risk becoming structurally ossi ed as they fail to make room for nonstate actors and accord emerging nations a role proportional to their growing economic might Institutional reforms must address the global trade and current account imbalances without signi cantly slowing growth The new framework must also nd a way to successfully conclude the Doha Round of trade negotiations Finally, the framework must strengthen the international nancial system and reduce volatility to avoid further nancial crises Outside of the economic sphere, properly functioning institutions can also mitigate negative side effects of openness While increased economic interdependence has resulted in reduced cross-border warfare and poverty, and the improvement of living standards, liberalization is by no means a panacea Economic openness and growth have complicated environmental, health, and security challenges With increased commerce comes the increased movement of people and greater possibilities for the spread of terrorism and contagious diseases Greater prosperity also leads to heightened demand for commodities and energy, creating new environmental stresses A successful economic framework must address all these issues The holistic platform of the G7 model makes the organization uniquely equipped to handle the reverberations of economic liberalization and is worth replicating The original scope of the G7 was macroeconomic management, international trade, and relations with developing countries From this initial foundation the summit agenda has broadened to include everything from environmental standards to health The central problem with the G7 is not design but membership Currently, the G7 focuses on issues over which it has little to no direct control47 For example, the G7 nance ministers have called on oilproducing countries to expand production to restrain the upward rise in crude oil prices and on non-G7 Asian nations to adopt more exible currency regimes
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