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May 2007, there is speculation that some SWFs are shifting investment strategies toward more diversi ed and riskier foreign assets These concerns are overblown SWFs are misunderstood by many Westerners Emerging market governments have been big buyers of US and European bonds for some time, and their recent forays into other asset classes are rooted in a reasonable desire for asset
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diversi cation like most G7 institutions of comparable size Many SWFs also have their money managed by foreign managers, largely based in the G7 Lately, some of these funds have been the white knights of the global nancial system Early in the subprime crisis, SWFs infused more than $100 billion into US and European banks, helping to keep them solvent and operating (even though many of these led to losses) However these benign investments are being eyed with suspicion, largely due to the origins of the investors: Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, China, Brunei, and Saudi Arabia27 SWFs are not likely to be a huge threat, but a push toward greater transparency is in order In May 2008, the IMF and 25 sovereign wealth funds established a working group to draft the rst-ever best-practice guidelines Since these countries are new to global markets, it is important to integrate them properly as other countries have been to strengthen the global nancial system The fact that pension funds, insurers, and SWFs often invest in hedge funds and private equity (as well the underlying assets of hedge funds and private equity funds), and that global banks often lend to these institutions and make markets in underlying investments, means that trouble in any one corner of the nancial system can wreak havoc for the whole system
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To understand today s interconnected quantum world, simply take a look at the recent US credit crisis and its links to globalization This nancial meltdown happened not in a developing country with weak controls, but in the United States, the world s nancial leader By examining the tangled web of global economics, capital markets, labor, immigration, energy, and regulatory regimes that contributed to (and resulted from) the US subprime mortgage bubble and broader credit meltdown, we see just how interdependent the world has become In the early 1990s, a nearly balanced federal budget under the Clinton administration pushed down global interest rates making US mortgages more affordable than they had been in the late 1980s
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Interest rates dropped from a high of more than 11 percent in mid1989 to 725 percent in 1995 and continued to dip for the remainder of the decade, according to HSH Associates28 Because nancing was cheaper, US real estate sales and prices soared Residential mortgage volume jumped from $295 trillion at year-end 1992 to $51 trillion by 2000 The housing boom resulted in a need for construction workers Lured by high wages, many Mexicans and Central Americans (some legal, some undocumented) immigrated to ll these open jobs29 In turn, billions of dollars worth of capital remittances were sent back to families in Latin America, sparking domestic booms in these countries A similar economic expansion in the Middle East and Europe led to parallel immigration and remittance patterns with laborers from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey, and the Philippines This real estate boom also ushered a great US import binge from China Americans began to ll their houses with everything that could be bought from the local Home Depot or Wal-Mart and jammed into a plus-sized SUV The seeds of our widening trade de cit, weaker dollar, and the rises in commodities prices were planted As the real estate boom continued, banks targeted less quali ed or subprime borrowers for mortgages With the rise of interest-only and adjustable-rate mortgages, as well as personal mortgage insurance, many NINJA borrowers (No Income, No Job, No Assets) were able to buy houses with little or no money down the resulting combination of a debt-prone culture, some predatory lending practices, as well as some outright fraud in mortgage applications With surging US real estate and a sizzling economy, the US trade de cit jumped from $111 billion to $370 billion from 1995 to 2000 sending dollars abroad and building wealth overseas in places like China The 2000 bursting of the Silicon Valley bubble and resulting crash in tech stocks, only further whet appetites for US real estate because property values held up better than the NASDAQ So Americans continued to build, buy, and renovate houses, (not to mention speculate on pre-built properties) as well as piling into their mammoth SUVs, consuming more gasoline, and buying more and more imported goodies In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the US Federal Reserve Bank kept the US economy a oat with huge interest rate cuts, pushing
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