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Buyer s New Annual P&I Payments to Seller on $266,000, Versus Previous $416,000 Debt ($517,000 $251,000 Total P&I Payments
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The scenario that led us to estimate value at $892,000 contained total P&I payments of $66,949 Under the new presumption, combined P&I is $86,020 (versus the previous $101,076) I would normally carry this out through the whole process, but for our purposes, let s go straight to the heart of the matter the buyer s discretionary cash ow
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Testing Estimated Business Value Return: Net Cash Stream to Be Valued Less: Annual Bank Debt Service (P&I) Pretax Cash Flow Add: Principal Reduction Pretax Equity Income Less: Est Dep & Amortization (Let s Assume) Less: Estimated Income Taxes (Let s Assume) Net Operating Income (NOI)
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93,816 86,020 7,796 50,094* 57,890 20,430 2,306* 35,154
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*Debt service includes an average $50,094 annual principal payment that is traditionally recorded on the balance sheet as a reduction in debt owed This feature recognizes that the owned equity in the business increases by this average amount each year Estimated income taxes might increase slightly because of lower interest write-off
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Return on Equity (ROI): Pretax Equity Income Down Payment $ 57,890 $225,000 257%
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Return on Total Investment (ROI): Net Operating Income Total Investment $ 35,154 $742,000 47%
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Buyer s Potential Cash Bene t Forecast Annual Salary $ Pretax Cash Flow (contingency not considered) Income Sheltered by Depreciation $ Less: Provision for Taxes Discretionary Cash $
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50,000 7,796 20,430 2,306 75,920
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This, of course, does not set the equation equal to where the seller was solely providing nancing infrastructure but, then, bank debt rarely
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models what sellers might provide to get their deals closed What it does offer, however, is an estimate in terms of fair purchase value In this instance, if this seller required bank participation in his deal, the buyer s $845,000 negotiated price should be reduced to an offering price not exceeding $742,000 I do not believe that valuation formulas should be used as static instruments For nearly 30 years I have looked for ways to amend, modify, and/ or restructure these processes to t other needs of buyers and sellers To the best of my knowledge, the amalgamation used herein for backing into another estimate of value will not be found in any other text It took several years to develop a mathematical model that resembles what buyers and sellers actually do in the marketplace Some may disagree with my approach, but I can assure you that this neat little trick, if you will, has proven quite reliable, time after time, for many years What to offer is a question most asked by buyers Try the excess earnings method, and play around with the back-into routine outlined here If you know what you need to earn personally after the purchase, this whole process can lead to answers for your question, What do I offer Discounted Cash Flow of Future Earnings (The theory is that the value of a business depends on the future bene ts [earnings] it will provide to owners Traditionally, earnings are forecast from a historical performance base into some number of future years [usually 5 to 10 years] and then discounted back to present using present value tables) In our wholesale case-business, sales and earnings plod ahead slowly but predictably History reveals that the seller has been accurate in forecasting each year s working budget Future estimates were completed by purchaser and buyer together, and thus, offer the prospect for levels of reliability in the use of discounted methods
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Base Year $159,812 Forecast Earnings 3 $239,800
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Establishing Expected Rate of Return (The rate expected as a return on invested capital) For the loss of liquidity and venture rate of returns in the range up to 25%, let s assume 20% as a level of return on risk associated with small business ownership We ll also assume the earnings plateau in the fth year at $312,000
Wholesale Distributor Value of Wholesale Business Forecast Year 1 Forecast Year 2 Forecast Year 3 Forecast Year 4 Plus $171,600 (1 20) $192,500 (1 20)2 $239,800 (1 20)3 $295,900 (1 20)4 $143,000* $133,681* $138,773* $142,699* $752,315*
($312,000 divided by 20) (1 20)4
Total Business Value $1,310,468*