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to cover all debt An all-cash at closing scenario would forecast price compression near to the value of hard assets
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Offering Price Less: Down Payment Less: Bank Financing Uncovered Debt Cash Flow (commonly used last completed year, assuming that conditions of the business warrant such) Less: Principal/Interest Cash Flow Free of Debt $ 735,000 185,000 550,000 0
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$ 151,332 70,394 $ 80,938
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Return on Equity: $80,938 minus salary $45,000 equals $35,938, divided by $185,000 equals 194%
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Business Is Fairly Priced If:
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1 Asking price is not greater than 150% of net worth (except where reconstructed pro ts are 40% of asking price) a Net worth $528,390 times 150% equals $792,585 b Reconstructed pro ts $151,332 divided by asking price $735,000 equals 206% 2 At least 10% sales growth per year being realized a Three growth periods in the four years equal 30% or about 10% per year average 3 Down payment is approximately the amount of one year s reconstructed pro ts a $185,000 minus $151,332 or $33,668 (222%) more 4 Terms of payment of balance of purchase price (including interest) should not exceed 40% of annual reconstructed pro t a Debt service $70,394 divided by $151,332 equals 465% What does all this mean for estimated value It means that the price of the deal in the eyes of buyers, if they have read from a multitude of publications whence this information was gleaned, could be viewed as just about right Subsequently, we might estimate most-likely value to be
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$735,000 Considering that garden centers or nurseries sit on the higher end of the desirability scale for all buyers in general, we might also recommend that a seller offer the business in the market at $750,000 to start
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Results
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Book Value Method Adjusted Book Value Method Hybrid (capitalization) Method Excess Earnings Method Forget the Scientist Method $ 201,257 362,497 685,055 735,000 735,000
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As you might note, this is the rst time in our examples that the forget the scientist and excess earnings methods show the same results Assuming that forget the scientist models general buyer practice, then this fact might suggest an early sale of this garden center To some it might also suggest that we have underpriced the business but that s not really true As a general rule, any time that down payment requirements exceed $100,000 there is a great tendency in buyers to seek cash ows of substance and, usually, above average personal earnings capacities As we approach the $200,000 down payment mark, we begin to tap buyers of a more sophisticated category Garden centers and nurseries, while they do enjoy good buyer appeal, largely t into the category of lifestyle enterprises Thus, growth of revenues can be quite slow under even the best of circumstances Buyers of these and similar businesses are inclined to negotiate much harder to achieve day-one cash ows because they recognize that the growth of personal earnings is likely to be slow in coming For many reasons, the issue of forecasting practical levels for growth must be fully understood by value processors Sellers quite normally get caught up in dream rates of growth (and they shouldn t unless previous actions show that they have done it themselves), and buyers quite normally are doubt-ridden about seller s predictions; therefore, value estimating that tips too far one way or the other tends to unleash no-interest/ no-sale results Pricing for lifestyle businesses will tend to fall into the where is, as is model
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Once in a great while, value processors will run up against sellers who refuse to provide balance sheet information Perhaps their malingering fear is rooted in historical purchase prices they paid and, subsequently, they worry that prospective buyers will use these data to their disadvantage at the time of negotiations I have a bone to pick with this reluctance or refusal on the part of sellers Yes, what one originally paid for something being sold today has no bearing on its present value However, history tells the best story about present values Outstanding performances recorded from the past can become a major selling point to the bene t of sellers Inabilities to complete a range of ratio studies in support of hardasset values serve only to weaken the sellers overall case At some point in the negotiation process, it is likely they are going to be required to disclose this information to buyers or their accountants so why not up front Withholding, in my opinion, smacks of impropriety and leaves me suspicious as heck What do you think it does for buyers
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