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feverishly for the domestic market The competition keeps prices low and encourages innovation On the one hand, the business relationship and the opening of China means US multinationals like Procter & Gamble, GM, Motorola, Boeing, and hundreds of others big and small can pry open a huge market at precisely the time when their domestic markets are dismally weak They are selling cell phones and shampoo, designer bags, new autos, tractors, and personal computers to a middle class that, within a decade, may be as large as the entire population of the United States
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Autos
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By 2008, China s car capacity is likely to reach 87 million vehicles annually, double the number of expected buyers According to Honda senior manager for China, Atsuyoshi Hyogo: [Honda] will use China as one of [its] export production bases According to Honda, from their tests, Honda Chinese version cars are superior to US manufactured models
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Source: Pete Engardio, Chindia New York: McGraw-Hill, 2006, pg 183 184
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Most of these products have been marketed to af uent urbanites, skimming the cream from the top However, new research from the McKinsey Global Institute nds that over the next 20 years, a huge new urban middle class will emerge with spending power that will rede ne the Chinese market (see Table 131) The initial surge will create 140 million households spending 36 trillion yuan By 2025, the total middle class will have grown to 70 percent of urban households with consumption spending power of 14 trillion yuan after TABLE 131
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Share of Chinese Urban Households by Income
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Af uent Upper middle class Lower middle class Poor >100,000 40,000 100,000 25,000 40,000 <25,000 Households yuan yuan yuan yuan (millions) 2005 2015 2025 06% 60% 110% 94% 212% 594% 126% 497% 198% 773% 232% 97% 191 280 373
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Source: McKinsey Global Institute
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Manufacturing a Future
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FIGURE 132 China population, 1960 to 2025 (millions)
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Sources: World Bank: World Development Indicators; US Bureau of the Census: International Database
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taking account of China s high saving rate Finally, because urban middleclass incomes will require a higher level of education than the older generation obtained, McKinsey estimates that the country s wealthiest consumers will be from 25 to 44 years old
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Shift from Agriculture
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A major consequence of urbanization and industrialization is the shift away from low-productivity agriculture to jobs in industry and service sectors created by the new economy Note in Figure 132 that while the overall trend in population growth in China will be slowing, urban population growth, which accelerated with the beginning of reforms in 1980, will continue to grow signi cantly faster than the total population Therefore, China is likely to be able to sustain economic growth rates above those typical of the advanced developed nations by taking advantage of this opportunity
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GDP Growth
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China s growth over the past three decades has been a remarkable feat China s GDP in 2005 was 12 times what it was in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping
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19 60 19 64 19 68 19 72 19 76 19 80 19 84 19 88 19 92 19 96 20 00 20 04 20 08 20 12 20 16 20 20 20 24
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Total population Urban population
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Six Sizzling Markets
started his economic transformation China is now the world s fourth largest economy and third largest trader China s GDP growth has been miraculous since its economic turnaround after 1978, and is likely to continue as domestic consumption increases and is balanced by strong exports GDP growth has averaged an astounding 98 percent from 1980 to 2005 According to an estimate by Goldman Sachs, the per-capita GDP of China in 2005 of $1,753 is estimated to rise to $44,074 by 2050 However, China s dependence on exports may be less important in the future as internal growth accelerates Plans are already being initiated to stimulate the growth of domestic consumption The low-cost manufacturing of components has dramatically lowered the cost of goods domestically and made those goods competitive in world markets It has also made many of their companies pro table reducing in ation, creating a domestic consumer boom, and keeping the interest rates much lower than would be possible without this cost saving As capital ows into China, creating modern factories, it has an ever-ready supply of more than 350,000 engineering and science graduates annually whose work is both cheap and skilled