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t the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in 1770, India contributed about 20 percent to the world economy Such was the case with another great economy of the time China After about two centuries of tumultuous history, both countries bypassed the Industrial Revolution, and both countries achieved the dubious distinction of recording about 3 percent of world output In the case of India, colonization by the British for almost two centuries, misplaced priorities after independence, and a closed economic system resulted in a stagnant economy barely averaging 3 percent growth Meanwhile, India s population more than doubled during the rst 50 years of self-governance The result was entrenched poverty and neglect that persisted until recently This all changed with a new beginning in the late 1980s, and an even more dramatic transformation of the country s economy continued through the 1990s Today, India promises to have one of the fastest-growing economies in the next half century It has achieved an auspicious, if short, history of strong growth, with the emergence of world-class companies in many cutting-edge industries Indeed, today s India is beginning to be hyphenated with the other power from the late 1700s China Here is a look at India today and its prospects for tomorrow in relation to the eight tenets of our investment model
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Demographics: Favorable
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India s large population, in conjunction with a large number of workingage adults, is a major factor that makes the demographics favorable India, located in Southeast Asia, is the world s second most populous country, home to 11 billion people, which is about 3 times the population of the United States and more than 10 times that of Mexico According to the 111
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Euromonitor International Report of 2006, it is also one of the world s youngest countries over half of its population is under the age of 25, while those over age 65 account for less than 6 percent of the total population Combined, these two variables portend an unstoppable forward motion in coming decades By 2015, India s population is expected to grow by approximately 250 million people This increase equals more than the current population of the world s fourth largest country, Indonesia, and is not far behind the population of the United States In the same period, China s population will grow by less than 10 percent, and the gap between China and India will shrink by 60 percent to about 80 million people By 2025, India will claim the lead as the most populous country in the world Many research studies show that a country s population growth or decline is not in itself strongly linked to investment returns However, population growth is tied to other factors in the economy that do in uence a country s competitive position in world markets The structure of the population the relative percentage in each age group is a critical factor A high percentage of young people translates to a higher dependency ratio (more dependent children per worker), while a higher proportion of working-age individuals increases savings, which in turn helps nance more investment and boosts output The dependency ratio, de ned as the population of those under 20 and over 65, as a proportion of the total population for India in 2005 was 47 percent and expected to go down to 43 percent by 2010 (according to the Euromonitor International report, The Market of Consumer Lifestyles in India, June 2006) Economists have coined the phrase demographic dividend to refer to the increase in economic growth that can occur as a country s birth rate begins to decline, pushing down the dependency ratio These per-capita income boosts are not automatic, however, but rely on the government s ability to enact wise economic policies affecting the labor markets and education The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cites relatively open and competitive markets, substantial investments in basic education, scal discipline, and a relatively deep nancial sector as keys that have helped East Asian countries such as China bene t from the demographic dividend in the past While India currently lags behind China in the demographic boom, it is already experiencing declining fertility rates as its national income is increasing Meanwhile, its working-age population is expected to grow by 140 million in the next 10 years, a number equal to the entire working population of the United States, up from 58 percent in 2000 to a peak of 64 percent in 2035 Researchers at the Australian National University suggest that while China s demographic dividend is past, India s could continue for another two decades at least Hence, India s growing population can be a strongly positive force provided the nation succeeds in nurturing and
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