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El Milagro Mexicano: The Mexican Miracle
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Economists have hailed the period from 1940 to 1970 as The Mexican Miracle, and it was a time of great optimism in Mexico During the 1940s, the pro-business wing of the PRI became dominant, and the leftist stance of the Cardenas years was toned down Mexico underwent a dramatic transformation from a predominantly rural society to a predominantly urban one National industries greatly expanded, and the economy developed due to government investment in infrastructure and large public works projects President Miguel Aleman Valdes (1946 1952) was responsible for a massive program of infrastructure improvements, including the building of
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major ood control and irrigation projects in northern Mexico, the expansion of paved roads, and the completion of a new campus for the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) While the government invested heavily in the economy, it also put high tariffs into place to protect the domestic economy, and implemented the economic strategy of import substitution and scal and monetary restraint to promote growth while keeping in ation low The result of these economic policies was impressive growth Between 1950 and 1962, GDP grew at the average annual rate of 59 percent At the peak of economic expansion, between 1963 and 1971, the GDP growth rate was 71 percent, and Mexico appeared to have the same rates of growth as countries like West Germany and Japan But unlike West Germany and Japan, which were able to rebuild their economies on the stable foundations of the prewar years, Mexico was trying to transform its economy from a semideveloped or Third World economy into a modern, technologically advanced economy
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In the end, Mexico couldn t sustain the miracle During the presidencies of Luis Echeverria (1970 1976) and Jos Lopez Portillo (1976 1982), the e economy uctuated wildly, and the public sector continued to expand Four months before Echeverria left of ce, he devalued the peso, from 125 to 20 to the dollar, leaving his successor to deal with the consequences After the crisis of 1976, Portillo mended fences with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and foreign banks to convince them that Mexico was again a good credit risk He was helped in part by the discovery of substantial offshore oil reserves Worldwide oil prices were very high, and soon oil sales were bringing in massive revenues Portillo continued spending, and when the money ran out, he borrowed more from abroad on the assumption that Mexico would be able to pay it back with oil revenues Alas, oil prices began to fall in 1981, and this, along with rising in ation, an overvalued peso, and unsustainable government spending, spelled disaster In August 1982, the government defaulted on scheduled debt repayments, triggering a regional debt crisis and exposing Mexico as the world s second largest debtor nation after Brazil As a result, Portillo was forced to implement a drastic austerity program and also to devalue the peso again In February 1982, the exchange rate was 47 pesos per US dollar; by the end of the year, it was 144 pesos to the dollar In perhaps his most controversial move, Portillo nationalized the banks, further eroding public con dence He left the mess to his successor, Miguel de la Madrid Hurtado (1982 1988)
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The crisis of 1982 was widely viewed as the result of the post-1940 economic model and the political practices that put it in place De la Madrid s charge was twofold: to stabilize the economy and survive the crisis, and to nd an alternative model of economic development The administration began to liberalize the economy, but per-capita income, estimated at $2,405 in 1982, fell to $1,320 by the end of 1987 In ation rose as high as 100 percent, unemployment was skyrocketing, and people became desperate The shantytowns around Mexico City got larger, and many Mexicans illegally entered the United States looking for work The 1980s were known as the lost decade because of the country s economic stagnation Between 1982 and 1985, the de la Madrid administration initiated a series of long-awaited economic reforms The era of large state subsidies and a bloated public sector was over they simply could no longer be maintained De la Madrid sold off some state-owned enterprises and allowed the price of Mexican crude oil to oat instead of pegging it at an arti cial price Paying off the foreign debt was partly resolved by obtaining a $35 billion bridge loan from the Reagan administration In addition to the economic crisis, de la Madrid faced a political crisis: a scandal over corruption charges against of cials in the Portillo administration The combination of a terrible economy and political corruption dealt a severe blow to the PRI In the 1988 election, the PRI candidate, Carlos Salinas de Gortari, faced serious opposition from the left Cuauht moc e Cardenas, son of the former president, left the PRI to form the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) The Party of National Action (PAN) also entered a candidate Manuel Clouthier In a contentious election, Salinas prevailed, but barely; he received 5036 percent of the vote He was sworn in on December 1, 1988, with many questions still unanswered about the legitimacy of the election Salinas began a series of reforms that moved Mexico closer to a freemarket economy Reforms included the privatization of state-owned enterprises, the encouragement of foreign direct investment (FDI), and the negotiation of a bailout loan from US President George H W Bush The two leaders talked about a way to bene t both economies: NAFTA, made up of the United States, Mexico, and Canada After being approved by all three countries, NAFTA went into effect on January 1, 1994, resulting in Mexico s rise to economic and political prosperity
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