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The purpose of understanding psychology is to reduce the irrational component in your decision making9 To apply psychology in your stock buying and selling decisions, the rst thing you should explore is your primary reason for making that decision Consider a situation in which you decide to buy a stock because the stock s P/E ratio is low Knowing the primary reason for your decision, you should ask yourself, Is buying a low P/E stock rational There is plenty of evidence in the literature to suggest that in the long run, buying a low P/E stock results in higherthan-average returns Thus, your motivation appears rational You may have follow-up questions: Why is the P/E low or What percentage of low P/E stocks actually outperforms the market within three years or How long should I hold a stock after I buy a low P/E stock Because
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you realize that you are not very patient, you may not like the answer that you should hold a stock for three to ve years, and you may decide not to invest in low P/E stocks In any case, systematic thinking will help you determine what you know or do not know and overcome your psychological biases When you do not know the answer, you need to make a judgment call In the case of buying a low P/E stock, you might nd that one possible reason for the low P/E is that the earnings are temporarily high It may not always be possible to gauge the extent to which earnings are temporarily high, and you may have to make a judgment call based on your knowledge of available nancial data In estimating the intrinsic value of Burlington Northern Santa Fe earlier, I entertained this possibility because the economy was doing well until 2007 But I am unable to tell the extent to which earnings may decrease in 2010 or 2011 In computing intrinsic value, we have to make estimates or judgment calls Ultimately, everyone has to make judgment calls, but following a systematic approach will help you know when you are making a judgment call Consider a company that has an excellent product line and whose stock you are thinking of buying You will probably examine the historical sales growth or past price patterns You will also look at the company s fundamentals and management; but nally, you will have to make a judgment call You might conclude that you do not know enough about the company s prospects but that the price looks attractive based on what you know In other words, you do not have enough con dence in your decision You may decide to invest only a small amount of money in the stock and revisit the information set after a few months Your ultimate question should always be Is this rational based on all that I know On average, if you go through a set of basic questions about the stock and psychology, you should do well in the stock market Of course, in the process of learning about yourself, if you conclude that you are likely to make irrational choices more often than not, maybe you should stay away from the stock market In that case, your situation may be similar to someone who knows the dangers of excessive drinking but cannot help but drink when he visits a bar He should learn not to go near a bar Overall, knowledge of fundamentals should help you estimate the company s long-term future, and knowledge of psychology should help you inject rationality into your decisions
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Everyone has opinions and psychological biases However, people may not know their own biases The more you know about your psychological biases, the better you can function in the volatile stock market The entire market may be in uenced by psychological reasons, not by fundamental reasons alone From an investment perspective, the bottom line is that the market will continue to uctuate and give you solid opportunities every so often Value in the long run is determined by fundamentals, while short-term gyrations re ect market participants psychological weaknesses, such as herding Knowledge is the best antidote to making wrong decisions If you are a long-term investor, the rational thing to do is to make decisions based on long-term fundamentals of the business
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