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you can land if you get a degree in mathematics In the same manner, a simple yes or no to the market ef ciency question is not worth getting agitated about It is more important to know how, when, why, and to what extent the market is ef cient and, especially, how, when, why, and to what extent it is not ef cient
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Instead of thinking about market ef ciency, you should ask, Can I make money in the stock market Making money in this case means generating above-average returns My answer to this all-important question is Yes, of course If I thought otherwise, I would not be writing this book, I would not be investing in individual stocks, and I would not be teaching Buffett s ideas But it is also important to recognize that making money is not effortless There may be bargains out there, but there is no free lunch As a starting point, consider these two simple questions They should help you start thinking about making money in the stock market and whether you should try to beat the market or whether you are better off investing your money in an index fund 1 Do most professional money managers generate above-average returns in the stock market 2 Do most individual investors generate above-average returns in the stock market The answer to both questions is no It has puzzled me for a long time that most professional money managers can t beat the S&P 500 index Among those who can, few do it consistently Roughly speaking, this evidence supports market ef ciency You then need to ask, If most money managers cannot beat the S&P 500 index, how can I First of all, since most money managers do not beat the market averages, it should be clear that you should not listen to most money managers What does it imply about reading the Wall Street Journal and Barron s and watching CNBC You should read the nancial press and watch TV for facts, for events, for news, for analysis, but not for opinions You should listen to only a select few, such as Warren Buffett, John
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Templeton, and Peter Lynch, who have built a preeminent record over many years Otherwise, you should tune out when unsolicited advice from talking heads comes your way2
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Most Academics Favor Market Ef ciency
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Most academics promote the ef cient market theory as the mantra for investing in the stock market It does not suggest that intelligent investors can never beat the market The main reason academics have internalized the ef cient market theory is that it builds on appealing assumptions of rationality But people are often irrational So, at the very least, be careful in taking academic advice to heart: Use a pinch of salt Once again, the research ndings may be interesting to look at, but you do not have to agree with interpretations that can sometimes be a bit of a stretch, given the evidence And the academics do not always agree with one another; some new academic research now casts doubt on earlier evidence that the stock market is ef cient3 In academia, new ideas are always welcome and debated vigorously In a well-known book, Professors Andrew Lo and A Craig MacKinlay explain several developments and argue that nancial markets are predictable to some degree but far from being specimens of inef ciency or irrationality4 It takes convincing evidence from a variety of research ndings before new ideas are widely accepted Even if the market were ef cient, there is still no harm in buying individual stocks using your own knowledge In an ef cient market, you cannot lose money even if you want to For example, consider a game in which your friend tosses a fair coin, and you randomly call heads or tails In this game, you will win half the time and lose half the time regardless of what you call In other words, in a fair game of chance, even if you try to lose your money, you cannot do so consistently If the stock market is ef cient, you cannot, on average, lose money even if you want to You will incur the cost of trading in terms of brokerage commissions, but as long as you do not trade often, you will do as well as, or better than, most money managers On the other hand, if the market is not ef cient, you can learn from your trades and you may develop the skills necessary to beat the market
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