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growth Over the prior ve years, the earnings per share grew at a steady rate of about 14 percent per year, from $028 in 1985 to $055 in 1990 McDonald s was expanding overseas successfully So, a person with a good knowledge of the fast-food industry and McDonald s would have, I believe, surmised that earnings would continue to grow steadily The earnings per share grew from $055 in 1990 to $140 in 1999 When you identify a company such as McDonald s that has grown steadily, you need to follow up by asking whether the current price is reasonable In my discussion, I am not including IPOs, tiny companies, or other companies that are dif cult to value The P/E ratios of stocks like McDonald s are generally high in relation to their historical levels or the market, and they remain high for long periods You should not immediately conclude that the stock is expensive and that you have missed the boat It is uncommon for a growth stock to trade at a low P/E ratio The stock is still worth buying as long as the price is not astronomical, say above 25 or 30 times earnings, and you are con dent about future growth Only in rare cases do stocks trading above a P/E of 30 generate high returns over a long period By 2000, McDonald s P/E was 32 A P/E of 32 was high in contrast to its median P/E of about 18 in the prior 10 years or the long-run S&P 500 P/E of about 16 This is when knowledge of the rm becomes important It was still a good company and was expected to grow, albeit at a slower rate It was just not a good time to buy From an investing point of view, one thing you can do is to wait for opportunities in good growth stocks once you identify them With McDonald s, you would have done well if you had invested in 2003 when the stock hit a low of about $13 per share, primarily because of an outbreak of mad cow disease in the United Kingdom and isolated places elsewhere The rumors of the demise of McDonald s proved to be wrong What a bargain growth stock it was! In 2009, its stock price was around $53 per share
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Conclusions
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To nd a promising growth stock, I recommend that you start by examining earnings for several years because companies that have grown strongly
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buffett investing = value + growth
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for several years, on average, are sound candidates to generate good earnings in the future You also need to examine qualitative variables, such as the quality of management and company culture, as they are the true underpinnings of future growth Before you buy a growth stock, you should consider the possibility that the price may already be re ecting a high growth potential You may do so by evaluating its P/E ratio or, preferably, computing its intrinsic value as I discuss in the next chapter Overall, success in growth investing requires you to have a very good knowledge of the company s business and an ability to forecast its earnings well
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Intrinsic Value
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In general terms, it [intrinsic value] is understood to be that value which is justi ed by the facts, eg, the assets, earnings, dividends, de nite prospects, as distinct, let us say, from market quotations established by arti cial manipulations or distorted by psychological excesses1
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efore you risk your hard-earned money on a stock, you probably want to know the value you can expect to get in return The value you assign to a stock, or that stock s intrinsic value, is the maximum amount that you are willing to pay now for future bene ts, which could come from dividends or the potential sale of the stock at a realistic future price It makes no sense to buy a stock when its intrinsic value is smaller than the current price Buffett cautions: The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise gure 2 In this chapter, I compute the intrinsic value of Wesco Financial, Coca-Cola, and Berkshire Hathaway to more thoroughly explain this concept
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