Head and Shoulders in .NET

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ing an open risk of a radically different opening price triggering your standing order. Although being somewhat forgiving with how far a retracement will go is a wise idea, you should be careful not to enter an order if the price of the security seems to be clinging to the neckline instead of clearly breaking beneath it (Figure 12.53). The neckline, after all, represents an important level of support. In other words, this price level is a line of equilibrium between bulls and bears, and it needs to be plainly violated to the downside for the bears to be plausibly in control of the price action. If a gap down in price takes place after the neckline has already been violated, that is good news for those who are short the stock (Figure 12.54). But it should also be noted that the chance of a retracement piercing through that price gap is greatly diminished, so those waiting for a retracement to the neckline will probably be disappointed. Instead, the bottom of the price gap should be respected as an important
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FIGURE 12.53 A price will sometimes bobble around a neckline before breaking cleanly. It is safest to wait for a clean break.
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FIGURE 12.54 The gap-down following this neckline break indicated a retracement was probably not going to happen.
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area of resistance that should be heeded as much as the neckline would have been. One nal note on the H&S pattern is that the neckline doesn t necessarily have to be horizontal. Although it is most logical as a horizontal line, since this represents an agreed-upon line in the sand dividing bulls and bears, you can also recognize modestly-angled necklines as legitimate de ners of H&S patterns. In Figure 12.55, for instance, Hershey (symbol HSY) sports an H&S pattern with an upward-sloping neckline. The pattern is quite well formed, and after the break beneath the neckline, the price moves neatly up to perfectly touch the underside of the neckline, which has now changed from support to resistance. As illustrated in Figure 12.56, the price of Hershey s continued to move down once the retracement was complete. The same rules apply to an H&S with a slanted neckline as would apply to a horizontal one. The neckline is simply drawn differently, and the retracement (should it happen at all) will corresponding move to a slightly different level than if the line were perfectly at.
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FIGURE 12.55 Necklines do not necessarily have to be horizontal to indicate a
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FIGURE 12.56 The retracement of Hershey s touched the sloped line perfectly.
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Whereas the H&S pattern is a reliable bearish pattern, there is a version of the H&S that is instead bullish; it is called the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern (for the sake of brevity, IHS). As the name implies, it is similar to the H&S pattern, except that it is upside-down. It has a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder, all of which are topped by a neckline. The principal difference is that the neckline represents resistance instead of support, and bulls watching this pattern want to see the price break above resistance. As an initial illustration of this pattern, Figure 12.57 shows a stock with both an IHS pattern as well as, later, a regular H&S pattern. The inverted H&S, shown on the left side of the chart, precedes a dramatic rise in price. The H&S pattern, shown on the right side of the chart, precedes a big plunge in price. Even though this is the same stock, it offers both patterns at different points in time, each of which had the expected result. Instead of starting with a perfect example, let us look at a more typical, real-life example in Figure 12.58. The neckline is drawn for the sake of
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FIGURE 12.57 This chart shows, within a relatively short amount of time, an inverted H&S and a regular H&S on the same stock.
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