FIGURE 12.25 Patterns can sometimes be strangely shaped, but as long as the in .NET

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FIGURE 12.25 Patterns can sometimes be strangely shaped, but as long as the
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FIGURE 12.26 Just because the right shoulder is higher than the left does not
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only retraced to the vicinity of the price gap before resuming its fall (Figure 12.27). Those waiting for a retracement to the neckline would have never taken a position in this stock, but those who executed their trades on the day of the neckline break would have enjoyed handsome gains. It isn t practical, of course, to monitor hundreds of stocks to see what necklines have been broken. There are many web sites which provide free stock alert services on the Internet. Many online brokers also provide the ability to enter a stock order contingent on a stock s price. The neckline for EPIX, for instance, was at $15.43. You might have entered an order to sell the stock short if the price went below, for instance, $15.40 (or some other price low enough that you felt con dent the neckline had indeed been violated). This way, you could put the trade on automatic pilot if you were con dent enough in the pattern. Generally speaking, it is indeed better for the right shoulder to be lower in an H&S pattern. Given the choice between two otherwise identical H&S charts, one with a higher right shoulder and one with a lower right shoulder, the latter is probably the more pro table choice. Fedders Corp (Figure 12.28) sported a very high left shoulder, a head, and a much
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FIGURE 12.27 The day that price broke below this stock s neckline would have been, in retrospect, a perfect time to get in, because the very next day the stock gapped down and never looked back.
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FIGURE 12.28 Some H&S patterns can precede gigantic price declines, such as this one, which led the stock almost to $0.
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lower right shoulder. The stock broke the neckline, retraced almost back to it, and then spent many subsequent months plotting out a series of lower lows and lower highs. The damage to the stock was tremendous, bringing the price almost down to zero. A decision you will face every time you nd an H&S pattern is whether to place a trade the moment the neckline is broken or instead wait for a retracement. A variety of factors will contribute to your decision, such as how high the potential pro t is, how volatile the stock is, how well-formed the pattern is, and your own past experience with similar patterns. There is no one right answer, since every chart and opportunity are different. If you were looking at the chart shown in Figure 12.29, you might want to consider what you would do short it at once, or wait to see what happened As Figure 12.30 shows, the best decision in this case would have been to place the trade at once, perhaps using a contingent order with your broker to execute the trade the moment the price dipped beneath the neckline. The stock never made a full retracement, but it did fall substantially. Only those bold enough to make the trade without hesitation maximized their pro ts.
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FIGURE 12.29 Entering a short position immediately upon the neckline break
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FIGURE 12.30 There are many occasions where a retracement is only partial,
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Express Scripts (symbol ESRX) behaved quite differently, since its retracement was orderly and didn t even take very long to complete. The arrows on the chart (Figure 12.31) simplify the stock s behavior after the trendline break, rst moving from $80 to $64, a 20 percent drop in price, and then returning to the neckline at $80 once more. It is possible that the cleaner shape of the H&S pattern contributed to this more orderly behavior. A similar retracement can be seen with the small carrier Frontier Airlines (symbol FRNT). Figure 12.32 shows the stock running up in price from $3.75 to nearly $20. Between the $15 and $19 range, the stock built a relatively clean H&S pattern, although the neckline is a little rough. The stock broke down, falling rapidly for ve days, then it spent the next several weeks ghting its way back to the neckline. The longer-term graph in Figure 12.33 reveals the aftermath of this neckline break, with the arrow indicating the retracement point. This also helps illustrate how valuable it is for an H&S pattern to be preceded by a swift run-up in price, because there was virtually no meaningful support on the way down. It took longer for the stock to fall than it did to rise,
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