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The quality of the H&S is ampli ed when the right shoulder is lower than the left (Figure 12.20). The reason for this is that it indicates the market s ability to push the stock higher is weaker than before. It has failed to get as high as the head s peak, and it has even failed to get as high as the other shoulder s peak. Owners of the stock will begin to give up, and if the neckline is violated to the downside, the selling will rapidly intensify through a combination of stop orders being executed and owners voluntarily rushing for the exits. One of the maxims of the stock market is that stocks fall faster than they rise. Traders not blessed with a lot of patience therefore nding selling stocks short more ful lling, since descents in price often happen at a quicker pace. Stocks usually slowly climb the fabled wall of worry, but they can swiftly slide down the slope of hope. Figure 12.21 provides a good example of how a person selling a stock short would enjoy a relatively rapid pro t. The neckline, at $31, is broken, and the stock falls to about $26. The stock then takes a few weeks to execute a nearly perfect retracement to the neckline, creating a great opportunity to enter into a short position or buy puts on this security. As illustrated in Figure 12.22, the fall in price was fast and furious. It
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FIGURE 12.20 A lower right shoulder is a good sign of basic weakness in the
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FIGURE 12.21 Here is an excellent example of the price retracing to its neckline.
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FIGURE 12.22 It took ve years for the stock to climb this high in price but only a couple of months to destroy the same amount of equity.
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took this stock ve years to build its equity up and only a couple of months for all that equity and then some to be wiped out. Those traders short this stock would have enjoyed a very fast pro t, and those owning puts on this security would have enjoyed gigantic gains, all based upon the good application of an easily recognized pattern. Holders of short positions on this stock with more patience would have seen their pro ts grow even more. Even though the stock had a big plunge over a two-month period, it was in a severe downtrend over the next few years (Figure 12.23). As you can see, it would have been a somewhat nerve-wracking ride, since the stock threatened to push above its neckline again in early 2001. But by early 2003, the stock was beneath $4, a 90 percent decline from its peak four years earlier. A vital prerequisite for fat pro t potential with the H&S pattern is a major increase in price preceding the pattern. If a stock s neckline is at $20, but for years it traded in a range between $16 and $18, there is very little reason to sell the stock short since there is so much support beneath the neckline. Figure 12.24, however, shows a stock with a gigantic price increase. There is plenty of air beneath the neckline for the stock to fall. There are certainly a couple of areas with some support along the way
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FIGURE 12.23 This retracement point, marked with an arrow, was perfect for shorting this stock.
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FIGURE 12.24 This H&S pattern was preceded by a more than ten-fold increase
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down, but because the stock has soared many hundreds of percent, there is ample opportunity for it to fall hard. This particular stock, Doral Financial (ticker DRL) provides a good example of how H&S patterns may be rather unusual in shape. Figure 12.25 illustrates the left shoulder, a very high head, and a right shoulder. The neckline has been drawn for the sake of clarity. In spite of the rather distorted shape of the H&S, there was no diminishment in the power of this pattern as the stock fell from about $40 to $5. Doral, as well as Epix Pharmaceuticals (Figure 12.26) provide proof that a higher right shoulder doesn t mean the H&S Pattern should be ignored. Epix also illustrates how vital the neckline is to monitoring the stock s possible breakdown. On January 13, 2005, the stock fell below its neckline. For those who did not want to wait for a possible retracement, this would have been an ideal time to enter a short position on the stock, because the neckline was decisively violated. The very next day, the stock gapped down in price, almost instantly demonstrating the validity and strength of this pattern for this stock. Subsequent to this break in price, the stock fell substantially before regaining some strength. However, instead of retracing to the neckline, it
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