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$2 to $18.75, the formation of an H&S with a right shoulder lower than the left, a break, a retracement, and then a nal plunge all the way back down to $2. Some followers of this pattern believe you can set a price target for just how far the stock is going to fall. The calculation involves taking the difference between the peak of the stock and the value of the stock at the neckline and then subtracting that value from the value at the neckline. For example, if a stock peaked at $40 and had a neckline at $30, the price target would be $20 (since the difference between $40 and $30 is $10 which, when subtracted from $30, yields the result of $20). This calculation does not seem reliable. The chart in Figure 12.11, for instance, would yield a nonsensical negative value. A better approach is to judge each chart independently, looking for areas of meaningful support where the stock price might slow its descent.
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The act of retracement in the world of the Head and Shoulders pattern sometimes seems like an act of generosity on the part of the stock market. When a price retraces back up to the neckline after breaking below it, two bene ts are provided. First, it af rms the importance and validity of the neckline (assuming that, once the retracement is complete, the price starts to fall again). And second, for those traders who prefer less risk, it provides a welcome second chance to get into a position with a very clear stop price namely, the value of the stock at the neckline. Take AK Steel Holding, illustrated in Figure 12.12. This stock had a neckline at $19, and it cleanly broke that neckline, falling to about $13. For those people who had been bearish on this stock, it might seem that it was too late, since selling a stock short at $13 with a stop price above $19 represents an outsized risk. Getting stopped out above $19 on a position entered at $13 would represent a loss of nearly 50 percent, which most people would nd unacceptable. However, the price strengthens and makes its way back to just pennies beneath the $19 level. Now, instead of entering a short position at $13, a trader could enter it at a price just underneath the neckline and set a stop price just above the neckline. The risk in this case is pennies instead of dollars. Such a trade would have worked out brilliantly, as shown in Figure 12.13. Once the neckline was retraced, the price fell hard, eventually
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FIGURE 12.12 This is a perfect retracement, with the price moving back and touching the neckline after the break.
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FIGURE 12.13 Shorting this stock at the retracement point would have provided the perfect low risk/high reward opportunity.
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descending to a price of about $2, a nearly 90 percent drop from the neckline price. The problem, of course, is that not all retracements are this smooth. In fact, hardly any of them are. Perhaps the retracement will push just above the neckline for a few moments, forcing the execution of the stoploss order. Perhaps the retracement will only be partial, not getting close to the neckline and in doing so snatching away a second chance to enter the position as the price resumes its fall. Or maybe the retracement won t happen at all, meaning the only individuals pro ting from the stock s fall are those bold enough to have entered their positions immediately upon the neckline s break. Figure 12.14, the chart of Advanced Micro Devices, shows how a stock s price can bobble around its neckline, frustrating bulls and bears simultaneously. This kind of price action indicates major uncertainty among those taking positions in the stock as they ght for direction. The stock fell below the neckline, went well above it, fell once more, went even higher above it again, and then fell a third time. This kind of cycle
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FIGURE 12.14 This break beneath the neckline is very rough, since it took three separate attempts before a true break was in place.
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