THE IMPORTANCE OF THE NECKLINE in .NET

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THE IMPORTANCE OF THE NECKLINE
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There is no more important feature to the H&S pattern than the neckline, because the neckline de nes whether or not the pattern is complete and, therefore, has any meaning. As with other lines in technical analysis, the neckline represents a line in the sand dividing bulls and bears. Along the line itself is a sort of equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Trading above the line represents strength and hope. Trading beneath the line represents weakness and fear. With an ideal H&S pattern, the neckline has ve unique touch points. The rst is on the left side of the left shoulder; the second is at the right side of the left shoulder (which is also the left side of the head); the third is at the right side of the head; the fourth is at the right side of the right shoulder, at which point the price breaks beneath the neckline; and the fth point (which is optional, in a sense) is when the price retraces back up to the neckline before falling hard once again. Once the price has broken beneath the neckline, the H&S pattern has validity only if the price remains below the neckline. (When the price retraces, you may want to allow for a few pennies of violation before dismissing the pattern altogether). Just because the price goes above the neckline doesn t absolutely mean the stock will not fall, but it does indicate strength that is normally not part of a good, strong H&S breakdown. Figure 12.7 shows an instance where the price broke below the neckline, went well above it again, then once more fell beneath it. A pattern with noise such as this should be viewed with more skepticism than a pattern absent such noise. What you instead want to see is more along the lines of the chart shown in Figure 12.8, which is actually the same stock as the one in Figure 12.7 but at a different point in time. The neckline drawn on this chart clearly shows a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder (which has a lower high the than the left shoulder, always a good sign), and then a break below the neckline. When the price gains strength and retraces back to the neckline, it touches the neckline virtually to the exact penny and then swiftly falls away. This is a superb example of the H&S pattern at its best. The aftermath of the H&S that was shown in Figure 12.7 is actually pretty impressive, in spite of the neckline violation that took place. As Figure 12.9 illustrates, the descent in price was quite rapid and relatively
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FIGURE 12.7 Sometimes the neckline is violated to the upside after it has been
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broken. In these instances, the pattern should be viewed with more skepticism.
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FIGURE 12.8 Here is a different H&S pattern on the same stock, which shows a
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FIGURE 12.9 In spite of the imperfect behavior around the neckline, the H&S pattern performs well in this instance.
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uninterrupted. A very clear series of lower lows and lower highs was laid out after the H&S was complete. An even more extreme example of the H&S s ability to withstand neckline violations in shown with Figure 12.10. On the left side of this chart you can see the H&S, the initial breakdown, the retracement, and the subsequent fall in price. In itself, this would have been quite a nice trade. The stock strengthened quite a bit over the subsequent months, and it spent a couple of months above the neckline price (by this time, the H&S pattern was no longer meaningful for a trade). Over the long haul, the stock fell far more in price than it did after the initial H&S completion, showing that the reversal in price took a while to play out and was not without its complications (namely, the price moving above the neckline for a protracted period). As with many technical patterns, the H&S demands a certain amount of judgment on your part since perfect patterns are rare. They are also much easier to detect in retrospect. Authentidate Holding Corp., whose stock is shown in Figure 12.11, is an outstanding example of an H&S. It has all the required elements: a huge run-up in price from
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FIGURE 12.10 The price of this stock moved above the neckline but ultimately fell far below the original price target.
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FIGURE 12.11 This pattern shows the right shoulder much lower than the left shoulder, which lends credence to this H&S pattern.
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