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FIGURE 11.19 Symbol HBAN started to stall at about $25, forming a series of
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The three tops (not to be confused with the musical group) took place over an 18-month period. Even though the stock price uctuated between $15 and $25 a huge range the stock kept bumping up against the $25 price point and retreating. As you can see in Figure 11.20, by the third instance the holders of the stock had enough frustration and increased the selling pressure. Once the triple top was in place, the price succumbed and fell from $25 to under $10 in a little over a year (Figure 11.21). Owners of this stock who were armed with this knowledge would have had ample opportunity to get out of the stock near its high. The skill in being able to pick out a multiple top while it is happening is to be able to clearly spot the high prices amongst the noise of the regular ups and downs of trading activity. Take Tower Automotive, for instance (Figure 11.22). During 1998 and 1999, the stock uctuated between about $16 and $28. If you look for the highest highs during this period, two of them stand out one in the second quarter of 1998 and the second in the middle of 1999. One way to visually think of this is to imagine holding a ruler horizontal at the top of the chart and slowing bringing it down the graph. Once
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FIGURE 11.20 Multiple tops can happen many months apart from one another, as long as a consistent high price is being hit.
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FIGURE 11.21 HBAN suffered a 60 percent price decline once the triple top was
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FIGURE 11.22 Tower Automotive had an impressive track record, scoring a high price in 1998 and matching that high the next year.
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you hit some touch points with the ruler, if they are spread out from each other by at least a few weeks and represent a fairly consistent new high price being hit, it is probably a multiple top in formation. (With the possibility that the price could push ahead to an even higher price, thus negating the multiple top.) One interesting result of this double top was what a major turning point it was for this stock. After the double top was in place, the stock spent the next six years unraveling. By 2006, this security had disintegrated into the land of penny stocks (Figure 11.23). Once again, a chartist armed with some basic knowledge could have done very well with this insight. One nal example of a multiple top is impressive due to the quantity of tops it had in place: ve of them, laid down over a period of 20 months. Dov Pharmaceuticals (symbol DOVP, shown in Figure 11.24) had risen from about $3 to about $20 in the span of a year. Over the next two years, however, the stock oscillated wildly. This chart was not a case of higher highs and higher lows. Instead, it was showing higher lows (which is good for bulls) and identical highs (which suggests a multiple top). A bull would want to see higher highs instead.
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FIGURE 11.23 The effects of this multiple top were clear for more than six
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FIGURE 11.24 It is clear from this graph that $20 represented extremely strong resistance for this stock.
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FIGURE 11.25 A quintuple top established by stock symbol DOVP preceded an
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On ve different instances, DOVP reached a price of about $20 and then softened. Note that the price does not have to be absolutely identical to create a multiple top. As long as the high prices are within a reasonable range about 5 percent it is close enough to qualify. As illustrated with Figure 11.25, after this quintuple multiple top was completed, the effect on the stock was horri c, destroying about 90 percent of the equity s value. For bulls, multiple tops are an invaluable warning sign to get out and preserve pro ts. For bears, a multiple top can be a pro table signal to establish a short position in a stock and enjoy the ride down. Now we will turn out attention to the exact opposite pattern, the multiple bottom.
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