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FIGURE 11.14 This stock made a consistent series of higher highs for most of
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Taking a closer look at the stock s behavior in Figure 11.15, we can see that after the stock hit yet another all-time high of about $33, it eased back, moved up to about $33 again, eased back once more, pushed higher to $33, and eased back yet again. It is as if the stock had hit a wall and could not overcome this resistance level. In real-world terms, what was going on was that buyers and sellers had found a point of equilibrium at about $33. At that level, there was insuf cient buying interest to propel the stock any higher, and it kept falling back. There was a clear signal at this point that perhaps the days of a steadily ascending stock were a thing of the past. Unless the stock could gather the resolve to push past these prices, the sellers would maintain the upper hand. Indeed, the sellers started to overwhelm the buyers, and as Figure 11.16 plainly shows, this multiple top preceded an absolutely devastating loss in value in which the entirety of the gains shareholders had enjoyed were laid waste. The best way to deepen our understanding of multiple tops is through the examination of more examples, so let s proceed with those. Figure 11.17 shows high- ier Alexion as it made its way from $5 to $120. The rst highlighted oval indicates the initial peak in the stock price, and then it
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FIGURE 11.15 Here we see instance after instance of the stock hitting the $33 level and falling back due to selling pressure.
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FIGURE 11.16 The triple top circled here gave a clear warning signal that preceded a complete wipe-out of the stock s price.
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FIGURE 11.17 Alexion makes two impressive runs at the $120 price point,
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lost about 75 percent of its value. It subsequently regained its footing and managed to work its way back to its former peak, eliminating the entire 75 percent loss. Think of the mindset of the holders of this stock at about this time. Everyone who has bought this stock is in a winning position some of them exceptionally so. Longer-term holders have held on through a breathtaking collapse in stock price, only to see the stock rally 300 percent to match its prior high. Everyone long the stock wants the same thing for it to go higher but owners are understandably nervous. This is the kind of tenuous situation in which a stock can make a multiple top. It either is going to have such an exceptionally committed group of buyers that a new high price is reached, thus inciting even more interest, or people anxious to take pro ts overwhelm the buyers and the price simply matches the prior high. As you can see in Figure 11.18, the latter is undoubtedly what took place with Alexion. During the second top, the price tried to push its way into a new high, day after day. After over a week of attempts, the stock nally started sinking due to selling pressure, and it really never
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FIGURE 11.18 After the stock double-topped, ALXN lost nearly 92 percent of
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its peak value over the next couple of years.
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looked back. By the time the selling was done, the stock had lost nearly 92 percent of its peak value. The reason for the term multiple top is that there can be two, three, four, or even more tops. Whether or not the chart you are examining is forming a multiple top or is simply hitting a rm resistance level is a matter of discernment. After all, if a stock hits the same price 50 times in a row, it is not a multiple top; the stock has simply found a serious resistance level at which buyers and sellers are in a state of equal strength. One core characteristic of a multiple top is that there is a reasonable amount of time space between the tops. Often, the longer the space between the tops, the better, because it illustrates that even under constantly changing market conditions, the stock still poops out at a certain level. A series of equal high prices over the course of a week is not a multiple top. A high price, followed by a protracted dip, followed by a roughly equal high price four weeks later would be a much better candidate for a multiple top pattern. Figure 11.19, for instance, provides us a good example of a triple top. This is a very long-term chart, showing (on a split-adjusted basis) Huntington Bancshares ascending from a few pennies up to over $25.
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