FIGURE 9.31 In spite of the explosive rise of this stock, in the long-term the in .NET

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FIGURE 9.31 In spite of the explosive rise of this stock, in the long-term the
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again. Patient owners of this stock would have been profoundly frustrated that their 1900 percent gains had withered away to 50 percent. Far worse than having pro ts attenuated is to wind up with an outright loss. Bookham Technologies (symbol BKHM) had formed a magni cent pattern between about $7 and $30 (Figure 9.32). It broke cleanly above $30, and savvy buyers at this level surely must have had hopes that the stock would reach $100, $150, or even beyond. The breakout faltered, however, and the fact that the price sank beneath its former support level should have set off alarm bells for experienced chartists. If a stock moves above its resistance level, it s perfectly acceptable for it to tumble back to that level after its initial rise. But if it clearly moves beneath that level, then the breakout has virtually no value. For our purposes, the breakout no longer exists, because the price couldn t sustain its new level. In the case of BKHM, the stock slipped to $25, then to $20, and ultimately collapsed to near $0. You can plainly see how it is a mistake to hold onto a stock once its pattern breakout has been neutralized by subsequent price failure. Arbinet (symbol ARBX, shown in Figure 9.33) buyers experienced a similar disappointment. For nearly a year, the stock had moved between $6 and $8, accumulating buyers and interest at those price levels. At last, late in April, the stock pushed above $8, and it spent several sessions above that price, appearing to ready itself for a much higher price level.
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FIGURE 9.32 Bookham (symbol BKHM) broke above a nicely-formed saucer, but after failing to follow through, it lost virtually its entire value.
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FIGURE 9.33 Arbinet (symbol ARBX) pushed above a nearly year-long resistance line only to quickly fall back beneath it.
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But in one trading session early in May, the price moved to the other side of the former resistance line. Knowledgeable chartists would have seen this as an opportunity to exit the position immediately. Indeed, it would be wise for buyers of this stock to have placed stop-loss orders at the $7.99 level (or somewhat lower to allow for market noise) to protect their positions. The chart for 7/24 Solutions (Figure 9.34, symbol SVNX) is especially interesting since it has not one but two resistance lines. The stock had fallen terri cally from 2000 to 2002, losing virtually all of its value. In 2003 and 2004, the price steadied, and a near textbook-quality saucer pattern was hammered out, illustrated by the lower horizontal line representing resistance. It moved above this level and made an assault on the higher horizontal line, representing the next level of resistance. This, too, was pierced, indicating what seemed like a great future for this stock. Sadly, the price faltered. It fell beneath the upper horizontal line, and it wasn t long before it was below even the lower horizontal line. The stock was back to its old ways, oundering at a very low price level, the disheartened buyers of the stock having given up on it. Skilled chartists would have saved themselves much of this pain by recognizing that they should get out immediately when the higher line was violated. A stock can be very successful for you but then turn sour. Much earlier in this chapter, Figure 9.2 showed how Owens Illinois enjoyed multi-hundred percent gains from 1996 through mid-1998. Taking the
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FIGURE 9.34 7/24 Solutions (symbol SVNX) had a textbook-quality saucer pattern, but the stock swiftly weakened and plunged back to its historic lows.
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longer-term perspective, however, we can see these gains were temporary (Figure 9.35). By 2000, the stock was down to about $2.50, a staggering loss in value. Waiting until the stock fell all the way below its former resistance level would not be recommended for a stock that had already climbed so much an ascending trendline would have given you much earlier warning. The point is, however, the patterns do
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FIGURE 9.35 Compare this chart of Owens Illinois to Figure 9.2. In spite of the initial gains, the stock eventually weakened and went on to a substantial loss.
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