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FIGURE 9.2 Owens Illinois (symbol OI) tripled after it broke above this breakout
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term will have two important ingredients for a potential upside move: (1) a large quantity of buyers within that price range, eager to add to their position if the stock breaks out of the range, and (2) a strong support level at that price range, which will create a rm oor for prices if an initial breakout weakens. If a stock breaks above its price range and then starts sinking, that same mass of owners of the stock is going to be reluctant to sell their holdings as the price softens, which will cause the price to rm as sellers dry up. This army of security owners within that price range is a potent force, both for pushing the stock higher as well as protecting the stock from falling through the well-established price range. An extraordinary example of the power of a long-term base is shown with Newport Corporation in Figure 9.3. The stock hammered out a gargantuan base over nearly two decades, from 1983 to 1999. When it nally broke above $10, the ascent was fast and furious, with a nearly twentyfold increase in value within just over a year. Notice also the gigantic increase in volume during this time, which is illustrative of the ascent feeding on itself. Having waited so many years for the stock to nally wake up and do something, buyers were falling all over themselves to acquire more shares once it nally did burst above its well-established resistance level.
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FIGURE 9.3 Newport Corporation (symbol NEWP) exploded in both price and
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One nice feature of breakouts is that they often give traders a second chance to get in after the breakout. This temporary softening in prices after the breakout is known as a pullback, and it is caused by a portion of the owners of the stock anxious to bank their pro ts on their stock s newfound price activity. Imagine a hypothetical group of 1,000 people, each of whom owned shares in a company that had been trading between $10 and $12 for years. If the stock nally breaks out and hits $15, you can understand the excitement of these owners, since they have been holding a do-nothing stock for years and it is nally showing signs of life. Although most of these owners may be patient enough to let their pro ts build, there is going to be a subset of this group that will want to get out of the stock immediately and take their pro ts. The psychology behind this group is understandable too after all, their stock has done absolutely nothing, and now it is giving them an opportunity to get out with some extra cash. So some people let s say 100 out of the group of 1,000 immediately place orders to sell the stock at the current market price. This in ux of selling is going to cause the price to soften, at least temporarily. It usually will head back to the upper end of its former trading range, at which point selling will dry up since any newfound pro ts
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the group enjoyed have now vanished, eliminating the compulsion to sell the stock for a quick pro t. This temporary softening of prices is the pullback, and those people watching the stock chart closely can take advantage of this by acquiring the stock at the prebreakout price. It is an especially attractive opportunity since the stock has, in a manner of speaking, tipped its hand about its price direction since it has nally broken out of its price range. The stock of the company Potash, shown in Figure 9.4, broke above the upper end of its price range and swiftly moved from $38 to $44. It then started slipping back to $38, and for the rst few months of 2004, the stock bobbled between a miniature price zone of $38 to $44 before doubling in value. This pullback created a great opportunity for getting into the stock at a relatively low-risk price. After the breakout, the saucer s price range of $18 to $38 was a thing of the past. The stock was now trading above $38. It took a few months to get the strength and con dence to soar over 100 percent, but during that period, a savvy trader could have acquired the stock at a price very close to the initial breakout level (without the misery of holding on to a do-nothing stock for many years beforehand). Some of the most exceptional market gains in history have been enjoyed following the decisive breakout of a stock above a long-established price range. The more de ned and longer the chart pattern, the better it is for owners of that stock. An extraordinary instance of this is shown in
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