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FIGURE 8.15 Breaking above a descending channel usually precedes signi cant
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FIGURE 8.16 Other patterns may form within channels, which can offer more
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Expansion and Channels
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Just because prices are bound by a channel does not mean that a channel is the only pattern that can take place during that timespan, especially if a channel is somewhat lengthy. There are many instances where patterns can appear within other patterns, and having an awareness of those can yield fresh insight into the stock s future behavior. In Figure 8.16, the price of the Russell 2000 index moved within the con nes of a very large channel for many months. But inside the channel, a series of different patterns appears: The three horizontal lines indicate breakouts from smaller bullish patterns. By having an awareness of these smaller patterns, you could look for repeated behavior. So not only would you be aware of a broad-based uptrend, but you could make predictions based on the smaller patterns in this case, bullish patterns within a much larger bullish pattern, which made the case especially strong for holding onto this winning position.
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In this chapter and the prior one, you have studied line-based patterns: that is, trendlines and channels. Understanding and using these is essential to good charting. But these straight-line patterns are relatively easy to nd, and there are many other kinds of patterns that are important to your knowledge of technical analysis but may not be so obvious. In the next chapter, we will begin this journey into more ambiguous patterns by studying rounded tops and rounded bottoms. These are patterns which can help you predict reversals of a security from which you can pro t.
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Two of the most important events that occur repeatedly in technical analysis are breakouts and reversals. A breakout is the act of a price escaping from a relatively tight price range either to the upside (a breakout above resistance) or the downside (a failure below support). A reversal is the act of a price changing directly either from (a) up to down, or (b) from down to up. What is going on in each case is the same an escape from a price range. The terminology differs only to state what has happened prior to that escape. Breakouts and reversals are crucial events to discern on a chart since they can make you money, and two of the most common patterns found on charts that relate to these events are rounded tops (at the peak of a chart) and saucers (at the bottom). There are many terms used for these phenomenons. A rounded top, as the name suggests, is price action at the upper end of a chart, and it is sometimes called a distribution top or an inverted saucer. A saucer, which is typically at the low end of a chart s recent price range, is also referred to as a rounded bottom, a basing pattern, or a dish pattern. Tops and bottoms are not always as clean and neat as saucers and tops, so we will begin by examining the more fundamental price breakouts, which are the progenitors of saucers and tops. A breakout is the escape from a price range bounded by a lower line (support) and an upper line (resistance). Figure 9.1 illustrates a breakout pattern in which the price action had been around $7 to $9 for many months. When prices broke above the resistance line in mid-June, the stock swiftly moved up several hundred percent. 207
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FIGURE 9.1 This stock bounced between $7 and $9 for a year before nally
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breaking above its resistance level. Notice the pullback to the former resistance level after the breakout, after which the price soared.
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A longer-term chart is provided by Owens Illinois (Figure 9.2), whose stock was forming a base from 1992 through 1996. Traders sometimes refer to this price action as hammering out a base, because there is a tug-of-war happening between buyers and sellers as they try to establish a fair price for the stock. This is a search for equilibrium or price discovery, since the market is working at discovering what the proper price is for the security. As this goes on especially over a period of years, such as with this example the stock amasses a larger and larger group of owners of the stock within a fairly narrow price range. Once external events nally push prices out of this range, the momentum behind that push will be strong, because so many holders will be in a winning position, eager to acquire more shares. The psychology behind a mass of buyers holding a security at a particular price is important, and in a way it is the very basis of technical analysis. Generally speaking, traders prefer pro ts to losses. Owners of a security whose price moves higher will feel increasingly positive about that stock and will be compelled to buy more, because their pro ts are increasing. If there is a large mass of such buyers, this kind of buying can feed on itself. A stock that has been trapped within a small price range for a long
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