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FIGURE 7.49 This chart illustrates ve distinct trend changes for symbol KMI.
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Harrah s Entertainment had a similar situation of multiple trend changes, although the chart in Figure 7.50 shows three trendlines as opposed to ve. It s important to notice that even though it would not have been apparent in 1999, the descending trend was in the process of ending just as the ascending trend was in the process of being formed. Trends rarely change instantly; it takes time, sometimes measured in many months. This explains why, when drawn with the bene t of hindsight, trendlines often overlap with respect to time. Take a closer look at this trend change with a zoomed-in view of the same graph (Figure 7.51). As the stock is downtrending, it starts to make a move up and tries to push above the descending trendline, but it fails. It falls hard and fast, making a low in October, and then again makes an assault on the descending trendline. This time, it succeeds, and you can plainly see how, after it pushes its way above the trendline, it nds support on the same line, bouncing off it several times. Even though the stock once again falls very badly, it does not fall below its new support level, and this lends credence to the idea that the trend has changed. From this point, it enjoyed a 400 percent price increase. Knowing when a trend changes is not easy, but it is made possible with experience and well-placed lines. But even a beginning chartist can
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FIGURE 7.50 Trendlines working together are invaluable in identifying core trend changes in a stock.
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FIGURE 7.51 Harrah s clearly shifted from a downtrend to an uptrend during
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gain value from the signals trendlines provide, both when they are obeyed and when they are violated.
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Using trendlines when the price action is neat and well-de ned is pretty simple. When prices don t bounce precisely off trendlines and the price behavior is mushy with respect to support and resistance levels, it is far more challenging. Although, by de nition, there aren t any absolute rules when dealing with this ambiguous behavior, it is still helpful to look at some past, real-life examples to see how they played out. The S&P 600, showed in Figure 7.52, enjoyed a long, persistent uptrend. There are two trendlines shown, both of them ascending. The higher trendline was violated about halfway along the graph, and although it brie y moved above this line later, it fell once more, clearly showing this uptrend was history. The line beneath it had a similar result, although in the opposite
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FIGURE 7.52 Although the trendline has been violated, the basic direction remains intact.
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sense. In this instance, support held for virtually the entire graph, although it was brie y violated. But both of these trendlines tell the same story: Even though price action can move to the other side of a line, so long as this violation is brief, and provided that the prices resume obeying the trendline afterward, the trendline still does have meaning. There s no doubt that the validity of the trendline is diminished with any violation, but it is not eliminated completely. An extremely interesting example of this is shown with Raven Industries (Figure 7.53). From 2000 through 2004, ve whole years, the prices steadily climbed, never piercing the ascending support line. Early in 2005, when the prices broke the trendline, it did not signal a trend change. Instead, the trend continued upward, simply shifted downward several price points. What s remarkable about this graph is how the prices clung to the former support line, crossing above and below it many times, but generally sticking rigidly to the line as if it were a magnet. The softening of a trend s direction can take the form of a price reduction, as with Raven Industries, or the form of a reduction in the steepness of a trend, such as with Figure 7.54. In this case, the NASDAQ 100 market violated its major ascending trendline, but over time it continued a softer
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FIGURE 7.53 After RAVN breaks through its trendline, the price seems to cling to the line as a median instead of either support or resistance.
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