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fund, because it is a double-inverse index fund. What that means is that if a particular market (in this case, the NASDAQ 100) goes down 1 percent, the value of the fund goes twice as far the opposite direction (up 2 percent). So in a bear market, a fund like this provides an opportunity for people to still increase their portfolio s value. This graph shows the fund during a relatively bullish phase of the stock market, when the fund s value declined from $97.50 to below $15. Notice how on three separate occasions the prices just barely kissed the trendline, only to be repelled each time. After the third kiss, prices got enough strength to push through to the other side, allowing the fund to form a basing pattern and stabilize at about $15. Now let s examine the opposite effect a stock in an uptrend that breaks beneath it.
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Stocks in an uptrend that violate that trend provide a signal for bulls to get out of the stock and for bears so consider selling the stock short. All the rules cited for breaking through upside resistance apply, only in reverse. The Dow Jones Utilities enjoyed a multi-year bull market in the early part of the Twenty- rst century, mainly due to declining interest rates (Figure 7.30). As interest rates starting increasing, this uptrend was quickly stopped, and in the matter of a couple of weeks, the $UTIL went from a lifetime high to a clear break in its uptrend. When a stock breaks its support line, it is prone to weakness, because the faith in the stock s bulls is going to be badly shaken. Figure 7.31 illustrates this with Autodesk (symbol ADSK), which had climbed from $7 to $47, often priced far above its support line. Late in 2005, the stock gapped down, and the prices never crossed above the trendline again. Although the price recovered over the next few weeks, nearly marking a new lifetime high, the trend change was already in place: The stock succumbed to the loss of momentum and lost about a quarter of its value. The multiple trendlines in the chart illustrate how shorter-term trendlines can be helpful in seeing the new direction a stock is taking, since that is prone to change in the early stages of a trend reversal. A closer view of ADSK s change from bullish to bearish (Figure 7.32) highlights the fascinating ability of stock prices to have a sixth sense about their former trendline, sometimes touching it to the penny, but not going above it again. The middle of the graph shows the price s
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FIGURE 7.30 The shorter trendline on the right helps gauge a resistance level
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FIGURE 7.31 A stock s failure to hold above its trendline usually precedes major changes in direction.
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FIGURE 7.32 This is a close-up view of AutoDesk as it changed from bullish to
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failed attempt to get above the long-term trendline, and from February through May, the prices had an even lower level of resistance they were not able to mount. The psychology behind these trend shifts is important to understand. If a stock has been in an uptrend for years, once it loses momentum, the holders of that stock are going to be frustrated and disappointed (Figure 7.33). But after the initial shock, they will try to reestablish the stock to its old bullish ways. Figure 7.34 shows that after Cleveland Cliffs fell to $81, the bulls wrested control from the bears and were able to add about 25 percent to the stock in a matter of days. But the uptrend was over, in spite of the bulls efforts. After this nal run-up into the triple digits, the stock fell yet again below the $81 low it had so recently established.
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