CHART YOUR WAY TO PROFITS in .NET

Creation European Article Number 13 in .NET CHART YOUR WAY TO PROFITS
CHART YOUR WAY TO PROFITS
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companies around, and certainly one that was widely known in the 1980s. Look at Figure 1.18 and see how the company s stock built an amazing cup with handle formation over more than a decade. From 1973 to 1986 the company s stock went essentially nowhere, but it was carving what turned out to be an incredibly potent base pattern. In 1986 and 1987 the company s stock rose, but during the crash of October 1987, pretty much all the value that had been added to the stock got wiped out in a matter of a few days. What s especially interesting, though, is that 1987 s crash is almost an inconsequential blip in the grand scheme of the chart, as 3M went on to an impressive 8,600% gain over the next 17 years. Once the basing and breakout were nished, the stock basically never went down and became one of the best-performing stocks of any kind, blue chip or otherwise. One last example of a breakout shows once again how vital volume is. A bullish move almost always requires volume to power it up, whereas a bearish pattern can make a stock collapse on its own weight. PetroChina (symbol PTR) had an explosion in volume perfectly correlated to its breakout from a cup with handle pattern in the spring of 2003. Notice the highlighted portion of the volume bars indicating this change in Figure 1.19. The volume is the gasoline that feeds the re of higher stock prices.
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FIGURE 1.18 This very long-term graph of 3M Corporation illustrates that even
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over a long time period, technical analysis has tremendous weight. The breakout in the mid-1980s was the rst step to a staggering rise in the value of 3M.
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Technical Analysis: What It Is and Why It Works
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FIGURE 1.19 The gigantic rise in volume was an important factor in this stock s
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As buyers clamor to get into a stock, the excitement feeds off itself. It took a threefold rise in the stock s price before PTR paused at all and its prices eased for a while.
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The same principles that relate to ascending stock prices hold true for descending prices, except that volume isn t quite so important. But what you need to watch are the same simple guidelines of support, resistance, and pattern recognition. CMS Energy (symbol CMS) is shown in Figure 1.20. The stock had been a top performer from 1985 through 1999, rising well over ten-fold. In 1998 and 1999, however, a head and shoulders pattern formed, and the price broke beneath the neckline. The price shored up and retested the neckline (which was the ideal time to short the stock, since the risk was the lowest) before beginning to fall in earnest. Notice that the fall took some time to fully unfold; the stock actually recovered most of its losses by the spring of 2001 only to begin its slide once more. By the time it was over, CMS had lost 90% of its value from its peak. An even more amazing fall from grace is illustrated with Figure 1.21,
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FIGURE 1.20 Patterns can range in time from days to years this head and shoulders pattern lasted for two years until it broke beneath its headline in the second half of 1999.
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FIGURE 1.21 Juniper lost about 97 percent of its value once it broke beneath
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the neckline of its head and shoulders pattern.
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Technical Analysis: What It Is and Why It Works
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which is Juniper Networks (symbol JNPR). This stock fell from $245 to $5 in just two years. A skilled technical analyst would have seen a bad fall coming based on the stock s behavior in 2000. Although the head and shoulders formation is somewhat more complex than normal, the neckline is well-de ned and the prices did retest the neckline beautifully. What made the fall of this stock so dramatic was its incredible rise beforehand. The stock had increased in value from about $18 in the spring of 1999 to $245 in the summer of 2000, so the ascent was very rapid. Because of this, there were very few areas of support on the way down when the stock started falling. Think back to the Red Rover game described earlier in this chapter; there simply weren t any lines of people chained together to slow the stock down. Once the price started falling, it rarely paused, until the buyers and sellers reached a state of equilibrium. But even by 2006, after the stock had recovered some, the stock price was basically the same as the initial public offering price from seven years earlier. It has been mentioned a number of times that when a stock starts to fall, it may retrace some of the fall to test the pattern from which it had fallen. This isn t always the case, so you won t necessarily be able to get into a trade if you consistently wait for a better price. A nal example of a stock s collapse, which illustrates this point, is Figure 1.22. Once the stock
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FIGURE 1.22 Not all price breakdowns include a pullback. For this chart, after the price broke, it didn t pause until it lost over half its value.
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