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Table 32 Prices and Yields of Long-Term German Bonds: Nineteenth Century
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Table 32
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capital gains and ultimate redemption; these were 4.72%; 5.14%; 4.94% average. After 1815 for five years Prussian yields tended to rise while most other European yields were declining. They reached an average of 5.87% in 1821. This was the highest average yield for the century after 1815. After 1821 prices rose and yields declined sharply in common with general European experience. By 1830 the average price of Prussian 4s was 977 8, to yield 4.09%, an appreciation of 43%. The disturbances of 1830 brought only a small interruption of the trend toward lower yields. By 1840 the yield of the 4s was no longer representative because of a market premium. In fact the newly floated Prussian 31 2s in 1844 also commanded a small premium, averaging 1011 4, to yield 3.45%. This was the period of lowest German bond yields for the nineteenth century until the last decade. The revolutions of 1848 were accompanied by a sharp increase in the yields of Prussian 31 2s. From a premium in 1844 they declined to an average price of 761 8, to yield 4.60% in 1848. The yield decline in 1849 1852 did not restore the low yields of 1844. After 1852 yields rose gradually
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until 1859 and declined again in 1862. The wars of 1864, 1866, and 1870 were all accompanied by a rise in yields, so that by 1870 yields were back to the levels of 1824, but by no means as high as they were in 1820. A new series of Prussian state 4s sold in 1870 at an average of 821 4, to yield 4.87%. The year 1870 ended three and a half decades of rising interest rates. From 1870 to 1895 1897 German interest rates declined sharply and almost steadily in keeping with a general European trend. In 1878 a computed average of German high-grade bond yields stood at 4.26%. By 1890 the computed average stood at 3.68% and by 1896, the year of lowest interest rates, the computed average stood at 3.35%: these yields were only moderately below the low yields of 1843 1844 and were above most European yields on comparable securities. As in other countries, the last few years of the century saw a rise in yields which in fact was the beginning of a long-term upward trend. Space does not permit an attempt to trace the great variety of rates on the many types of German state and mortgage securities which were outstanding in the nineteenth century. However, the table on this page will serve to illustrate the variety of yields at long term that were simultane-
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Long-Term German Yields at Three Dates
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ously available, reflecting differences in credit, differences in terms and customs, and transient factors of supply and demand. Chart 26 compares the yields on British consols with the yields on Prussian and Imperial German bonds. It brings out important similarities and differences in trend. In both countries yields declined sharply from 1820 to 1844 and from 1870 to 1895 1897. In both countries the period from 1844 to 1870 was one of irregularity during which yields tended to rise substantially in Germany and moderately in Britain. In both countries many minor fluctuations coincided, such as the rises in 1826, 1830 1831, 1845, and 1866. German bond yields, however, were almost always substantially higher than yields on British consols; after 1845 there was a tendency for the differential to widen. The most striking differences in trend were the rise in German yields from 1815 to 1818 while British yields were declining and the much sharper rise in German yields in 1848 and 1870. German short-term interest rates were usually volatile early in the century. Table 33 and Chart 27 give the discount rate of the Reichsbank and its predecessors as a range and as annual averages and also give the open-market rate of discount in Berlin. They suggest that a widely ranging discount rate and a volatile open-market rate existed in Berlin several decades before English and French discount rates became very volatile. In the 1820 s the German discount rate ranged between 3 and 10%, while the French discount rate was fixed at 4% and the British bank rate was held in a range of 4 5%. Berlin open-market rates moved from an average of 8% in 1815 (halfway between 12% high and 4% low) to an average of 41 4% in 1819 (61 2 2%) during a period when Prussian bond yields were advancing. By 1824 the average was back to 71 2%, and by 1827 it was down to 4%. The Berlin discount rate was as low as 3% frequently from 1819 on to 1828, but rarely thereafter until 1879. It was as high as 10%
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