ENGLAND IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY in .NET

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of that century. The long history of the British 3% consols from 1751 through 1888 provides an ideal medium for reviewing those changes in capital values which accompany changes in long-term interest rates. Modern interest rate history will give many other opportunities for reporting actual price histories of long-term bonds and also the history of bond price indices. Bond market analysts frequently chart bond yields along inverted yield scales so that their curves rise when bond prices rise and yields decline, and fall when bond prices fall and yields rise. Such charts give a good picture of market price trends, while the reader is invited to look in the margin and see that yields are lowest at the top of the chart and highest at the bottom. Since this history is also concerned with short-term interest rates, which involve little inverse movement of capital values, and is primarily a history of interest rates rather than of capital values; and since it is the rate of interest that is to be compared from period to period rather than the market value of any one security, inversion of yield scales does not suit. Instead, yields are charted right side up and a few yield charts are supplemented by charts showing price histories, also right side up. The price of British consols and annuities from 1727 to 1900 is charted on Chart 8. One more technicality of charting should be noted. Most of these interest rate and bond yield charts are in semilogarithm scale. This form of presentation recognizes the fact that a yield increase from 1 to 2% is a far more significant change than an increase from 4 to 5%. The doubling of rate from any level occupies equal height on these charts; and thus fluctuations in a higher yield range are not exaggerated to the eye, and fluctuations in a lower yield range are not minimized. Similarly, the longrange price charts are set in semilogarithm scale so that a price rise from 50 to 60 will seem to the eye as large as a rise from 100 to 120, and so on. Chart 8 immediately reveals the vast changes in the price of consols in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. These followed from the changes in the going rate of long-term interest which have already been discussed. From a market price of 105 (in round numbers) in 1753, consols declined to 70 in 1762, rose to over 90 in 1768 (an appreciation of 30%), declined to 54 in 1784 after the American War, recovered to 97 in 1792 (an appreciation of 80%), and then declined to their all-time low (as 3s) of 471 4 in 1798 when Napoleon threatened invasion. Investors at 100 had lost more than half their principal. No period in the nineteenth century saw a price so low or a yield so high. No nineteenth-century crisis saw the Treasury paying a rate as high as the 6.57% it paid in 1797 for new long-term funds. After the brief peace of 1802, consols recovered to 79, an appreciation of 67% from their low. The next year, with renewed war, they dipped to 50 the low of the nineteenth century. They recovered to 71 in 1810
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MODERN EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA TO 1900
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and fell again to about 54 in 1813; in the year of the Battle of Waterloo they ranged between 611 2 and 721 2. In one year, 1816 1817, they rose 55% from 54 to 84, and after some fluctuations were back to 967 8 by 1824 an eight-year appreciation in principal value of 79%. They never again rose so rapidly in a comparable period of years, even in the 1930 s. They did not lose the reputation they then gained of being a good thing until the wars of the twentieth century. The conventional yield calculations, made when the consols were at heavy discounts, do not and cannot include the added return which was correctly expected from capital gains. From 1824 until 1880 a price range of 80 95 was maintained most of the time, with occasional dips to 74 or so during crises and occasional brief excursions upward to a slight premium. In the first part of this fiftysix-year period, from 1824 to 1852, prices advanced more often than they declined. From 1852 to 1866 moderate price declines predominated, which aggregated 17% when consols came back to 85. A renewed trend toward higher prices began in 1866 and lasted until 1897. The profit on consols, however, was then restricted by the redemption option. Consols rose to a 1035 8 high in 1887 and then were redeemed. Their 22% appreciation from 1866 low prices compared with a simultaneous appreciation of 45% for the 21 2% annuities. The new consols after the conversion went on up to a price of 114 in 1896. The total gain from 1866 was 34% for holders of consols who accepted the refunding, as compared with 68% for holders of the old 21 2% annuities. The funds were still a good thing. The last decades of the nineteenth century could be called the golden age of easy money. Low yields did not seem transitory, as they were in the 1750 s. This was not a period of deep depression or of war, such as characterized the easy money periods in the twentieth century. Short rates were volatile and occasionally high, but the yields on the gilt-edged were
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