OTHER COUNTRIES AND THE 1990 S in .NET

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OTHER COUNTRIES AND THE 1990 S
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The reported rates on mortgage loans remained slightly above 10% most of the time from 1947 through 1959. While these were high rates by U.S. standards, they were below the corresponding rates in many other Latin American countries, and they were remarkably stable. PERU Peruvian interest rates are represented in Table 83 by two series: the official discount rate from 1932 through 1985, and government bond yields from 1936 through 1965. The latter are based on average current yields of an issue of 7% bonds that in 1943 were converted to 6% bonds. These Peruvian interest rates were high. The discount rate fluctuated between 5% and 6% from 1932 through 1958, and then rose to 9.50% in 1960. This was at the time the highest discount rate reported by any Latin American country. The discount rate remained unchanged at 91 2% from 1960 through 1975. In the following decade, it climbed steadily to 72% in 1985, when reports cease. Peruvian bond yields of 11.50% in 1959 were also the highest reported in this chapter for the 1950 s. These bond yields were first reported at 8.10% in 1936. They declined in the 1940 s to a decennial average of 7.05% and advanced in the 1950 s to a decennial average of 8.27% and a high of 11.5% annual average in 1959. Thus, during these twenty-five years, they followed the general pattern by declining through World War II and rising in the post-war period. They reached their high of 11.5% in 1959, and thereafter declined to 6.75% in 1965, when the official reports were discontinued. COLOMBIA Colombian interest rates are represented in Table 83 by two series: the official discount rate from 1930 through 1989 and a series of government bond yields from 1930 through 1955. The latter were based on the current yield of an issue of bonds due in 1971 that had a coupon of 7% prior to 1941 and 6% thereafter. The interest rates reported by Colombia in the 1950 s were not as high as those reported by many other countries. In the early 1930 s, however, Colombian interest rates had been very high. The discount rate began in 1930 at 8%, declined to 4% by 1934, and stayed there until 1959, when it was raised to 5%. Commercial loan rates were reported at 6% in 1946 and 6 9% in 1958. Both rates were moderate for Latin America. After 1962, the Colombian discount rate rose steadily to reach 30% in 1979, a level that was more or less maintained through the 1980 s. Colombian government bond yields were very high in 1931 1932, rising almost to 14%. They declined thereafter, but did not go below
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LATIN AMERICA
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Table 83 Mexican, Peruvian, and Colombian Interest Rates: Annual Averages, 1930 1989
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Table 83
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LATIN AMERICA
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8.17% in the 1930 s, and averaged 10.25%. In the 1940 s, the new series of 6% bonds sold at lower yields: 6.28 7.13%. In the early 1950 s, yields fluctuated in a similar range, which was well below the Peruvian, Chilean, and Brazilian bond yields. They were the highest reported here for Latin America in the early 1930 s and the lowest, except for Uruguay, in the early 1950 s, when reports cease.
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TURN OF THE MILLENNIUM: 1990 2005
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POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC BACKGROUND The world of 2005 is quite different from the world of 1990, when the third edition of this history appeared. In 1990, there was a Soviet Union and a Cold War. By 2005, both were gone and almost forgotten. When 1990 began, there were two Germanys; when the year ended there was one. In 1990, the nations of Western Europe the European Community looked forward to completion of full economic integration, with a common currency, a European central bank, and further political integration toward something like a United States of Europe not far behind. By 2005, some of these goals, along with an enlargement of the European Union, had been realized. But moves toward more political integration and a proposed European constitution met resistance in some member states. It was not clear whether progress toward European unity would progress, stall, or even be reversed. When 1990 opened, the Japanese economy was thriving, even booming, while that of the United States was wallowing in deficits, debts, and defaults, and slipping toward recession. The Japanese Nikkei index of stock prices reached a record peak of 38,916 on December 29, 1989, while in the United States the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the year at 2,753. Market capitalization in Tokyo at then-prevailing yendollar exchange rates exceeded that in New York. Americans devoured books on Japan s economic success, how to imitate it, how to respond to it, and how to get ready to play second fiddle. At that very time, however, Japan s stock-market and real-estate bubbles were beginning to collapse, a collapse that would send Japan into fifteen years of recessions,
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TURN OF THE MILLENIUM, 1990 2005
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deflation, difficulties at financial institutions, and anemic economic growth. In mid-2005, the Nikkei average hovered around 11,000, less than 30% of the 1989 peak. Over the same period, the American Dow Jones average, despite experiencing a late 1990s bubble that deflated in 2000 2002, advanced to 10,500, up nearly fourfold from its 1989 close. After 1990, Japan and Europe became the large economies with problems, while the United States was comparatively prosperous. Who would have predicted in 1989, when Japan was on top of the world and Europe anticipated great things, that the real economic growth of the United States during the next fifteen years would substantially exceed that of Japan and the EU Awareness of that did not come until the late 1990s. From the mid-1980s to 1995, the three advanced economic areas had similar growth rates. But from 1995 levels, the U.S. economy expanded in real terms by 45% through 2004, whereas the euro currency area grew only 19% and Japan 15%. The U.K. and Canada did better, growing 32% and 35%. Within the euro area there were some large differences. Germany grew only 13% from its 1995 level through 2004, while Ireland s booming economy doubled in size. A remarkable feature of the recent U.S. economic expansion was its steadiness. In all but two of the years from 1990 through 2004, annual U.S. real growth rates ranged from 1.9% to 4.5%. The two exceptions were related to brief recessions. The 1990 1991 recession shrank the U.S. economy by 0.2% in 1991 as compared with 1990. The 2001 recession did not shrink it at all year over year, but merely reduced the 2001 growth rate to 0.8%. The mildness of these last two recessions might be contrasted with the one that came before them, that of 1981 1982, when interest rates were at their peaks in U.S. history and the Federal Reserve was focused on ending the Great Inflation of 1966 1981. In 1982, the U.S. economy shrank by 1.9% compared with 1981. That was the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Compared to it, the 1990 1991 and 2001 recessions were mild indeed. The steadiness of U.S. economic growth since 1990, even since the recession of 1981 1982, was by no means matched by the behavior of interest rates. From the 1981 peak yields to the lows reached in 2003, prime corporate and long-term government bonds declined roughly a thousand basis points. Bond yields of 15 16% became yields of 5-6%. Interest rates in the early 2000s were the lowest in four decades. One had to be close to retirement age to have memories of an earlier era when rates were so low. Fluctuations within the long bull bond market of 1981 2003 were also marked and at times dramatic. Although the trend of yields was down, within it there were seven reversals that raised yields by 100 to 300 basis points. Most of these reversals, as well as the even steeper yield declines between them, were related to policy actions of the central bank,
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TURN OF THE MILLENIUM, 1990 2005
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the Federal Reserve System. The combination of steady economic expansion along with a steep secular downtrend of interest rates and dramatic shorter-term fluctuations around that trend possibly contains a lesson. It suggests that the central bank at last may have realized in practice the potential for inflation control and economic stabilization that it was long thought to have in theory. The End-of-Century Bull Market in Bonds The dimensions of five great secular cycles of long-term American bond yields covering nearly two centuries of U.S. history (1798 1981) are sketched out in s 16 18. There also, in more detail, are analyses of the twentieth century s two bear bond markets (1899 1920 and 1946 1981) and the bull market of 1920 1946. By the time of the previous editions of this volume (1990 and 1996), it had become evident a second twentieth-century bull bond market began in late 1981. Chart 83 portrays the end-of-century bull market as it developed, in terms of the declining trends of monthly-average U.S. government (10-year Treasuries, the benchmark government bond of today) and prime corporate bond yields. The data for prime corporates are monthly averages from data underlying the earlier tables and Table 84 on pages 646 647. To be consistent with the earlier table, the long-term government security yields in Table 84 are for 20 30 year bonds rather than the 10-year benchmark Treasury yield of Chart 83.1 Peak yields for the 10-year Treasury were 15.32% in September 1981; by June 2003, yields on 10-years had fallen to a low of 3.33%. Because the protracted bear bond market of 1946 1981 had pushed yields up to record highs in American history, the subsequent bull market led to spectacular gains for patient bond investors. On page 648, Table 85, analyzing the bull market of 1981 2003, traces the price history of a hypothetical constant-maturity, 20-year U.S. Treasury bond with a 12% coupon. (As shown in 28, the U.S. Treasury between 1979 and 1985 issued a number of such bonds with double-digit coupons ranging from 101 8 % to 153 4%; a coupon around 12% was not at all unusual in those years.) At the September 1981 peak monthly yield for long-term Treasuries, the hypothetical 12%, 20-year bond would have sold at 85.85, for a current yield of 13.98% and a yield to maturity of 14.14%. At the bull-market low yield, 4.34%, that 20-year Treasuries reached in June 2003, such a bond would have sold for 201.72, more than twice its par value and well over twice its market value twenty-two years earlier. The price trends and fluctuations shown in Table 85 for a 20-year constant maturity bond demonstrate that during recent decades the U.S. bond market became something quite different from the low-return, lowrisk alternative to the stock market that it once was. The holding-period
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TURN OF THE MILLENIUM, 1990 2005
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Chart 83 Yieldseofs Prime e AmericanCorporatend GoGovernment s: 1980-2005 Amerian Corporate a and vernment Bond Bonds: Chart 83. Yi ld of Prim 1980 2005 tMonthlyes Mon hly Averag Averages
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