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In the nineteenth century, Japanese short-term rates were high by European standards. Furthermore, contrary to the European trend, they tended to rise from the 1880 s until the first decade of the twentieth century. Year-to-year changes were large. There were periods of lower rates, 4.75%, for example, in 1893, and frequent periods when rates exceeded 8 9%. Japan had a central bank, however, and it reported no crisis rates such as then recurred from time to time in the American call money market. The World War I era witnessed a narrowing of the spread between Japanese and Western rates. Average short-term rates declined during the war and approached the higher part of the European ranges. This was just when European rates were rising. In the 1920 s, these Japanese rates rose again. In the 1930 s, they declined with Western rates, but never reached the low rates then common in Europe and America. The lowest reported Japanese rates in the 1930 s were 2.51% for call money, 3.29% for the official discount rate, and a simultaneous 5.95% annual average of the bank loan rate. The lowest average rates for Japan reached during World War II were not very low. Bond prices and the discount rate were pegged for long periods in the Western manner, and market forces evidently were not permitted to act on the interest rate structure. Short-term rates of 3.10 3.65% were permitted during the war, as were government bond yields of 3.75% or so.
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Table 78 Japanese Interest Rates: 1883 1989
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Table 78
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Table 78
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Directly after Japan s surrender in 1945 interest rates rose. They remained comparatively high until the 1970 s, or throughout Japan s high-growth period. Between 1945 and 1949, the discount rate rose from 3.29 to 5.11% (annual lows), and the bank loan rate rose from 4.70 to 10.10% (annual average). Call money rose from 3.10 to 6.21%, and the yield of corporate debentures rose from 4.28 to 10.02%. The year 1949 marked the high point of postwar Japanese corporate debenture yields until 1973, but not of all short-term rates. By 1959 the Bank of Japan rates were well above their 1949 levels, but some other rates were lower. In the 1960 s, Japanese interest-rate trends were mixed. Government bond yields rose on average, while the yields on corporate debentures
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tended to decline a bit. Short-term rates were mixed. Call money rose briefly to over 10% in 1964 but soon came down below 6%. The discount rate of the Bank of Japan never rose to crisis levels, and its average for this decade was lower than in the 1950 s. In the eventful 1970 s, Japanese interest rates rose with those of all industrial nations. In the years 1973 1975 the discount rate at the Bank of Japan rose to 9%, call money reached 12.57%, corporate debentures reached 12.52%, and government bonds advanced to over 10%. Japan coped with an acute inflation and was using the traditional interest-rate tool. Chart 81 shows that Japanese government bond yields were stable but at a comparatively high level from the early 1950 s to the early 1970 s; these were regulated rates, and there was no open and active government bond market, such as existed in Western countries. The aftermath of the oil price shock sent yields soaring from 1973 until 1975. Japan s discount rate, shown in Chart 82, followed a similar course. Then began the liberalization of the Japanese financial system. From 1975 until 1978, both bond yields and the discount rate fell to their lowest levels since the World War II era. In 1979, the second oil price shock began carrying both rates up, and by 1980, they had reached mid-1970 s levels. In most other countries, however, the performance was worse, with interest rates in 1980 1981 moving well above 1974 1975 levels. Unlike these other countries, Japan avoided double-digit inflation and
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