WESTERN EUROPE, GERMANY, AND ITALY, TWENTIETH CENTURY in .NET

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WESTERN EUROPE, GERMANY, AND ITALY, TWENTIETH CENTURY
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temporary war taxes. By 1959, these Dutch yields were roughly the same as the American yields and were far below English and French yields. After 1960, Dutch yields almost paralleled the huge rise in American yields to the mid-1970 s. From then until the end of the 1980s, Dutch yields were noticeably below American yields. The gap was quite large for the Dutch 31 4s shown in Chart 61 but was also present in the case of other Dutch yields. Short-Term Dutch Interest Rates. Dutch short-term interest rates are presented in Table 65 in two groups: (a) the discount rate of the Bank of the Netherlands in terms of annual average and range of fluctuation; and (b) the market rate of discount in Amsterdam, or the private discount rate, 1900 1912, 1915 1941, and the rate on three-month Treasury bills, 1945 1989, all in terms of annual average and annual high and low. The discount rate continued to be a penalty rate, as it was in the nineteenth century, and the open market rates often were below it; in easy-money periods they were far below it. These short rates are pictured in Chart 62. Short-term Dutch open market rates at the beginning of the twentieth century were rising. However, they were moderate, like other European short rates, and unlike American commercial paper rates, which were high. Aside from a flurry in 1906 1907, which also occurred in other countries, the Dutch open market rates stayed moderate until 1910. During World War I, in spite of an increase in the discount rate,
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which was finally pegged at 41 2%, the open market rate fell at one time to below 2%. In 1920, it rose only to 4.22% when the English open market rate rose above 6%. Clearly, short-term interest rates in the Dutch money market remained low, far below those of the belligerents. Dutch bond yields, in contrast, rose at their 1920 highs above 6%. The German inflation of 1920 1923 created few repercussions in the Dutch money market, which remained relatively stable in the 1920 s. Average rates were then at their highest since the 1860 s, but they were well below the English and French short-term rates. In the 1930 s, Dutch short rates declined sharply, as did short rates in other countries. They ran up sharply in 1935, and then declined to new lows. During World War II, Dutch short rates remained low. After the war and through the devaluation of 1949, the Dutch official discount rate was held at 21 2%, and open market rates were permitted to decline to around 1%. This resembled the postwar English policy of very low short-term rates and contrasted with rising short rates in France and in America. It was in the 1950 s that the Dutch money market contrasted most strikingly with other money markets. Short rates stayed low after a flurry in 1951 and rose only moderately in another flurry in 1956 1957. In 1957, the discount rate got up briefly to 5% when the British bank rate was at 7%. The Dutch bill rate averaged 3% when open market rates in Britain averaged 5% and those in France averaged over 6%. Soon after 1957, the Dutch open market rate declined again, to below 2%. Short open market Dutch rates averaged 1.72% in the 1950 s, when English
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WESTERN EUROPE, GERMANY, AND ITALY, TWENTIETH CENTURY
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Table 65 Short-Term Dutch Interest Rates: Twentieth Century
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EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA SINCE 1900
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Table 65
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WESTERN EUROPE, GERMANY, AND ITALY, TWENTIETH CENTURY
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Table 65
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open market rates averaged above 3%, French open market rates averaged nearly 4%, and American commercial-paper rates averaged 2.58%. Clearly, the Dutch were clinging to the advantages, such as they were, of low interest rates. They were permitting their larger neighbors to resort to the weapon of tight money against the postwar inflation and thus help keep Dutch prices down. Holland did not abandon its ancient tradition of low interest rates. This policy was maintained into the 1960 s and, indeed, until inflation got out of hand in 1973. The Dutch decennial average for Treasury bills was 3.36% for the 1960 s, as compared to 3.97% in the United States, 4.90% in France, and 5.80% in England. An annual average of 2% occurred as late as 1972. Then came the first oil price shock. In 1974, the Dutch discount rate reached 8%, and the short rate peaked at 7.50%. In 1980, the discount rate hit 10%, and short rates rose to 15.25% in 1981. In the mid- to late 1980 s, however, Dutch short rates were back in the range that prevailed earlier in the century. The Dutch short-term open market rates quoted have averaged far below the Dutch bond yields quoted at all times during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The differential was larger and more persistent than in other countries. Low short-term rates of interest were a distinguishing characteristic of the early Dutch market, which was still evident in the 1980 s. BELGIUM The history of Belgian interest rates during the first half of the twentieth century was interrupted by two world wars, during both of which Belgium became an occupied country. The perpetually neutral state of 1831 was restored to its historical role as Europe s favorite battlefield. The nation could neither avoid nor influence constructively the political and economic struggles between her great neighbors. The Belgian franc fluctuated very closely with the French franc until after World War II, losing 90% of its dollar value. Thereafter, it approximately held its dollar value, while the French franc lost another 90% of its dollar value. However, in spite of such financial calamities and finally the loss of its African empire, Belgium grew industrially and in times of peace achieved a high level of commercial prosperity. Long-Term Belgian Interest Rates. The Belgian long-term interest rates shown in Table 66 and Charts 63, 64, and 65 include the yields of the same Belgian rentes that have been reported from 1830. The 21 2% and 3% rentes are carried on the tables up to 1914. No data are available for the war years. A new series of 3% rentes covers the years 1919 through 1939, and a series of 4% rentes ( unified debt, no maturity) covers the years 1935 to 1960. In 1960, a new series begins, an average of all bonds with a maturity of over five years.
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