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The first year of World War I brought with it only a moderate further price decline, but in 1915, and again in 1917, the market fell away sharply. War financing was at 3.96% in 1914, 4.50% in 1915, and 5.33% in 1917. After a sizable rally in 1918, English bonds again declined in 1919 and 1920, when consols reached their low at 435 8, to yield 5.73%, and other issues sold to yield 6% and more. The price decline of consols from the high of 1897 to the low of 1920 was 701 4 points, or 62%. This was the largest price decline in their history until 1961, when a new low price was reached. The 1920 yield was, however, well below the all-time high yield (until 1961) of 6.35%, reached in 1798 when the price of the old 3% consols got down to 471 4. In 1920, short rates were also at their highest for the century until 1961. The bank rate ranged between 6% and 7%, and the open market rate of discount averaged 6.38%. The entire decade of the 1920 s was marked by a long struggle to regain lost financial prestige by restoring the pound to prewar parity. In spite of stable or declining commodity prices and large unused resources, interest rates were held at a high level for more than ten years. The bank rate averaged 4.82% during the decade, its highest decennial average since the Napoleonic Wars. Consols averaged 4.63%, which was their highest decennial average since 1820. The decade of the 1920 s was, in fact, unique in the record for its high interest rates in time of peace, although its high rates were far exceeded after 1961. It was a decade of unemployment and
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social unrest. War debts and reparations distorted the flow of commerce, and American credit only postponed the day of reckoning. In 1922, consols recovered 10 points or so from their extreme low of 1920. They advanced a trifle further in 1923, and then tended to decline through 1929. The relatively short-term giant issue of War Loan 5s held the market down. New long-term government financing after 1921 was at 4.71 5.00% during a period when the United States was refunding at as low as 33 8%. A strong effort was made to attract international funds to England by means of high interest rates, but in the face of international unsettlement and American stock speculation, the effort did not achieve its ends. The crisis of 1931 1932 brought, first of all, higher interest rates, and then a plunge of all rates to low levels. The trouble was largely of foreign origin. England had experienced very little of a boom in the late 1920 s. The American stock market collapse, the rash of bank failures in America and Europe, the rush for liquidity, and the liquidation of foreign balances all put unbearable pressure on the newly convertible pound. The bank rate was pushed up from 21 2 % to 6% in 1931, and consols declined 10 points, to 491 2, to yield 5.05% still well above 1920 low prices. In late 1931, the pound was set loose from gold, and monetary policy was reversed. In 1932, the bank rate was brought down to its traditional low of 2%. It was held there, except for a brief rise in 1939, for eighteen years. The open market rate of discount declined in 1931 1932 from 5.88% to 0.68%, and stayed down. The 21 2% consols rose in a few months from 491 2, or 5.05%, to 781 2, or 3.18% their high price since 1912. This was a price rise of 58%. In 1932, the giant 5% War Loan was redeemed and successfully converted into an issue of War Loan 31 2s at a price of 99, to yield 3.54%. The new loan was not redeemable until 1952, and, in the ancient tradition, it was perpetual unless the government chose to redeem. England was again in a period of easy money. Long yields did not decline to the lows of the late nineteenth century, but short-term interest rates got down to new lows. The economic and political environments, however, were sadly different from what they had been in the easy-money decades of the nineteenth century. At home there was unemployment and depression; abroad, a new war was visibly approaching. English bond yields had followed a very similar pattern to that of American bond yields throughout the 1920s. They diverged sharply from 1931 through 1939, and thereafter again for some time followed the trends of American bond yields. In America yields rose in 1932, and thereafter declined almost steadily until 1946. In England yields started to decline a year earlier, in 1931, reached a low in 1935, rose until 1939, and thereafter resumed their decline, reaching their lows for the period in 1946. The chief difference was that American yields did not share noticeably in the 1935 1939 rise of English yields.
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