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EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA SINCE 1900
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have not typically been large for ten- to thirty-year issues in the homogeneous U.S. government market. 4. Call prices. In the high bond markets of the 1930 s and 1940 s, there were times when most prime corporate bonds sold up near call price or above call price. Averages based on such issues would then stand at yields above the going rate. 5. Quotation. Many seasoned corporate bonds become very inactive. Stock Exchange quotations used by some averages, based on a unit of one bond, gave a poor clue to the true level of the market. 6. Sinking funds. In the lower bond markets of recent decades, when the bond market included a large number of high-quality industrial issues with big sinking funds selling at large discounts, industrial bond yield averages would sometimes be depressed far below the going yields that investors were willing to accept. Agencies that must present averages made up entirely of industrial bonds found it difficult not to understate the level of market yields. 7. Coupon. High-coupon corporate and government bonds often yield much more than do otherwise identical low-coupon bonds, especially in periods of low prices. Most of these difficulties are reasonably well overcome by Durand s method of creating his basic yield index for corporate bonds. Since the 1970 s, U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve publications have reported constant maturity yield series for government securities for a number of maturities ranging from one to thirty years. These are derived by techniques similar to those used by Durand. Since the 1930 s, techniques for deriving indices of yields have improved. Credit ratings became very severe, and the issues in the prime market became much more uniform. In the higher markets of the 1930 s and 1940 s, call price became the chief problem and seemed to keep some yield averages a trifle above prevailing market yields for bonds unaffected by call. Differences, however, were slight. From the 1940 s to the 1970 s (when the Durand series ends), the Durand series and Moody s Aaa corporate series, as noted, are quite similar. In the high-yield era of the 1970 s and 1980 s, the chief problem in constructing bond averages resulted from large differences in yields between low-coupon bond issues and identical higher-coupon issues. Indeed, the most sensitive of all yields, the new issue yields, were almost always well above similar seasoned issue yields. The only complete solution is to construct a series of averages for different coupon groups, as well as for different maturity groups. Such a series of monthly high-grade bond yield averages, some of which go back to 1946, can be found in the Salomon Brothers publication An Analytical Record of Yields and Yield Spreads.
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ENGLAND IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY
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here is an old saying to the effect that in France the more things change, the more they stay the same, whereas in England the more things stay the same, the more they change. England lost much of its reputation for financial stability and leadership in the twentieth century. The financial consequences of the two world wars played a role in this, as did England s ardent pursuit of full employment at almost any cost for much of the post-World War II decades. Nonetheless, there were small signs of the old capacity for leadership. English long-term interest rates peaked in the 1970 s, well before the early 1980 s peaks in other large industrial nations. Having suffered the most from interventionist and questionable full-employment policies, England was one of the first to back off from them. Another sign of innovative leadership in finance was the government s introduction of inflation-indexed bonds beginning in 1981, an official and explicit recognition of the consequences of inflation for interest rates. Their fondness for tradition will, we hope, lead the British people to forgive us for maintaining our own tradition of referring to their country as England rather than the more comprehensive and accurate Great Britain or United Kingdom. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC BACKGROUND The financial history of England during the first six decades of the twentieth century was dominated by World Wars I and II. Both of these wars required financial mobilization on a scale hitherto unknown. Although
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