Estimated Real Interest Rates in .NET

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Estimated Real Interest Rates
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basis in the estimates for the widespread contention that real rates were high in the 1980 s, but they seem to have been no higher than they were in the 1930 s and in much of the previous century. The extreme swings in real rates shown in Chart 50 resulted mainly from extreme swings in inflation (or deflation) rates connected with wars or depressions. Before the 1970 s nominal rates were much more stable than either inflation or real rates. The connection of historical fluctuations in real rates with wars and depressions goes far toward explaining why the concept of real interest rates was largely ignored until recent times. Indeed, there was no mention of the concept in the first two editions of this HISTORY or in most
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academic and financial community discussions. Wars and depressions along with their inflationary or deflationary effects were either unexpected or considered to be temporary, or both. Once they were over, a reasonably stable price level was expected to return. The experience of the gold standard before the 1930 s and the gold exchange standard and the Bretton Woods system before the 1970 s served in general to reinforce these expectations. What changed during the 1970 s and 1980 s was that persistent inflation came to be expected, an expectation that was reinforced by the cutting of the old ties of the dollar and other currencies to gold. As rates of inflation rose, so with a lag did bond yields and short-term rates. And as rates of inflation came down, so again with a lag did market rates and yields. In this new financial and economic environment, there is much more risk and uncertainty about the future value of money. An investor considering the purchase of a twenty- or thirty-year bond knows its current market yield, but to estimate its real yield to maturity requires forecasting the average rate of inflation for the next twenty or thirty years. That is a highly uncertain matter, depending as much or more on future politics than on economics. This uncertainty transformed the long-term, fixed-interest bond from the conservative investment it had been for much of U.S. history into a risky, rather speculative investment.
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During the 1970 s and 1980 s, an increasingly widespread understanding of the concept of real interest rates and of the risks of traditional lending and investment in an uncertain inflationary environment had a number of consequences for interest rates, market yields, and credit instruments. To compensate for increased risk and uncertainty of inflation, lenders and investors demanded what appeared to be higher real rates of interest. Borrowers, attempting to avoid getting locked into costly long-term commitments in case the inflation rate turned out to be less than expected, turned increasingly to shorter-term financing. These behaviors diminished the relative importance of the traditional longterm bond markets and fixed interest rate bonds after the mid-1970 s. Another consequence was increased discussion of and the actual appearance of inflation-indexed bonds. The British government, beginning in 1981, made the greatest use of this innovation, as will be discussed in the next chapter. The U.S. government considered issuing inflationindexed bonds in 1981 but did not issue any. Starting in 1982, interest rates and bond yields began to decline, which removed some of the pressures building for the innovation. A few U.S. financial institutions nonetheless issued inflation-indexed instruments in the 1980 s. These paid a constant real rate of interest plus the rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index. (527) The inflation-indexed bond made few inroads in the United States for another reason besides the decline of yields. Variable- or floating-rate instruments loans, notes and mortgages came in as another way to cope with market fluctuations and inflation. The interest rate on such instruments was linked to other key interest rates, such as U.S. government bill, note, and bond rates, or the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR), a rate akin to the U.S. Federal Funds rate, in the Eurodollar market. To the extent that such key interest rates follow inflation rates, there is little difference between variable- or floating-rate financing and inflation indexing. A NOTE ON CORPORATE BOND YIELD AVERAGES AND INDICES The prevailing market yields for the best bonds of well-defined types and terms are usually known within a narrow range each day by contemporary bond dealers and professional investors. Nevertheless, the construction of a time series tracing the history of these market yields over long periods presents difficulties. Economists sometimes ask the impossible: a series of yields or interest rates over long periods of time derived from instruments of substantially identical terms and quality that fulfill the same economic function in the same way in one decade as in another. The
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