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in September 1981, and then retreated to 11.0% in November 1982. In the same periods, the composite average of long-term government yields advanced from 8.68 to 11.87%, declined to 9.40%, then rose to a September 1981 peak of 12.92%, and finally fell to 10.18% in November 1982. These years witnessed a mini-recession in 1980, along with a short-lived policy initiative of the Carter administration to restrain interest rates and the growth of credit, and then a severe recession in 1981 1982, which bottomed out in November 1982 with the unemployment rate in double digits. For this history, one event in the long-term market stands out: at the peak of yields in the fall of 1981, the U.S. government borrowed money for twenty years by issuing 153 4% bonds, which sold at just under par to yield 15.78%. This stands as the highest bond yield the government had to pay in the two-century history of the republic. Fluctuations in short-term rates, as is typical, were even more pronounced than those in long yields in these years. With its emphasis on controlling monetary aggregates from October 1979 forward, the Federal Reserve had to control bank reserves. The key Federal funds rate, the rate on overnight interbank loans of reserves, was stable at around 10% in the first half of 1979. It raced up to a monthly average of 17.61% in April 1980, retreated to 9.03% in July, and then rose to 18.90% in December. In 1981, the Federal funds rate averaged 16.38%, reaching a peak of 19.10% in June. Eighteen months later, December 1982, at the close of the 1981 1982 recession, the funds rate was down to 8.95%. The commercial bank prime rate peaked at 211 2% in December 1980 (annual average of 18.87% in 1981), and three-month Treasury bills peaked at 16.30% in May 1981 (annual average of 14.03% in 1981). At the end of 1982, there began a sustained economic expansion which carried through the 1980 s. Although the money and capital markets became less turbulent in these years than they had been in 1979 1982, the financial legacy of 1979 1982 continued to be present in the form of continuing federal budget deficits, bank and savings and loan (S & L) failures, the less developed countries (LDCs) debt crisis, and a stock market advance to record levels but punctuated by price crashes the likes of which had not previously been seen in the post-World War II era. Despite these problems, the trend of interest rates and yields after 1981 was downward. Reduced rates of inflation and inflationary expectations were an important contributor to declining rates. Nonetheless, the 1980 s ended with rates and yields at levels seldom seen before 1974. From the recession and postrecession lows of late 1982 and early 1983, a vigorous economic recovery coupled with a small rise in rates of inflation propelled market rates and yields upward until mid-1984. The peaks reached then were considerably below those of late 1981, and they were followed by steep declines lasting until early 1987. Prime corporate bond yields advanced from a low of 11.46% in May 1983 to 14.40% in
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June 1984 before falling to 8.36% in early 1987. The composite index of long governments rose from 10.2 to 13%, and then declined to 7.6% in the same period. In the middle of the 1984 1987 rate decline, the OPEC cartel became unglued in December 1985, and oil prices collapsed on world markets. This helped to make the 1986 rate of inflation the lowest in two decades, as did a moderating rate of real economic expansion. By early 1987, the effect of markedly lower oil prices on inflation had ended, and the price level started once again to advance at rates typical of 1983 1985. The Federal Reserve, worrying about a potentially overheating economy, allowed Federal funds rates to rise 120 basis points from February to October 1987, and the entire structure of rates and yields rose sharply. Prime corporate yields, for example, rose from 8.36% in March to 10.52% in October, and the composite of long governments advanced from 7.6 to 9.6%. The stock market peaked out at a then-record level in late August, before crashing more than 20 percent on October 19, 1987. After the crash, yields declined into early 1988 as the Federal Reserve provided liquidity to shell-shocked markets. It is worth noting that the October 1987 yield peak was well below that of June 1984, which in turn was well below that of September 1981. Although yields remained high by historical standards, the long post-World War II bear market in bonds appeared to have ended in 1981. Yields rose from post-crash lows in 1988, but peak yields in 1988 were below those of 1987, and those in 1989 were below those of 1988. This could be taken as further evidence that the great bear bond market was dead and gone, but it was also consistent with slower economic growth and fears in 1989 that a recession was around the corner after a seven-year expansion. Most short rates were higher in 1988 1989 than in 1986 1987, as the Federal Reserve continued its battle to keep a lid on, if not actually reduce, the persistent inflation of the quarter-century 1965 1989. The recession did arrive in 1990, and the yield trend continued downward until 1994 (see 29). SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES: 1946 1989 Table 52 presents the major short-term American interest-rate series from 1946 through 1989. Most of the 1900 1945 series from 17 are continued, and several new ones are introduced: (a) federal funds, a key rate for understanding Federal Reserve policy, from 1955 through 1989, in terms of annual averages and monthly highs and lows; (b) one-year Treasury notes/bonds; (c) the three-month Eurodollar rate; and (d) large negotiable certificate of deposit (CD) rates in the secondary market. Three of the most important short-term rates are plotted in Chart 41. During and immediately after World War II, the Federal Reserve pegged
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